Tourney Time!

Now that the NCAA brackets have been announced, I’ve got mine filled out and I can’t wait to get started. While penciling in my picks, I got a little prematurely excited about some potential match-ups in later rounds. These are a few potential match-ups that get me psyched for the second round and beyond in each region:

South Region:
Second Round
Tennessee (5) v. Virginia (4)
Chris Lofton and Sean Singletary are two of the most fun guards to watch in the country. There is only one other player in the country I would rather have taking a last second shot for me other than these two. (See Regional match-up) Both shoot better than .400 from three-point range and have hit their share of game winners. Virginia tied for first in the ACC and The Vols finished second in the SEC East to Florida. I give Tennessee a slight edge inside, even though they are a little undersized, because of the emergence of SEC All-Freshman Team center Wayne Chism.

Regional:
Texas A&M (3) v. Memphis (2)
Aggie guard Acie Law IV is probably my favorite player in the country. If I could pick one guy in the country to take a game winning shot, it would be Law, and I wouldn’t think about it for more than a second. Memphis hasn’t played a lot of good teams this year, but they do win games by an average of almost 17 points, and they play a stifling, harassing style of defense. The tigers have virtually no inside presence other than 6-9 Jr. forward Joey Dorsey (9.6 rpg). He and Sr. guard Jeremy Hunt lead a team of freshmen and sophomores. Senior center Antanas Kavaliauskus can step outside for the Aggies and draw attention away from the basket. I like A&M all the way to the Final Four, so I’ll take them over Memphis.

East Region:
Second Round
Boston College (7) v. Georgetown (2)
BC is a bit of an enigma to me. They have the best player in the ACC in Jared Dudley, and an explosive guard in Tyrese Rice, but they seem to give up at times against good teams. The reason I list this as a game that intrigues me is because I’m interested to see how well BC’s tournament tested seniors can lead them through one last post season. Running into Georgetown will be the ultimate test. Roy Hibbert is as dominant a center as there is in college basketball right now, and forward Jeff Green has been one of the better forwards in the country this year. (Green-Dudley would be one of the better front court match-ups of the tourney.) If Rice can push the tempo for the Eagles and prevent Georgetown from setting up their offense and dragging down the pace of the game, they could have a shot to upset the Hoyas. I’m not sure that’s going to happen though; I like the Georgetown to advance.

Second Round
Oral Roberts (14) v. Vanderbilt (8)
There is always a low seed that makes it to the sweet 16, this year, I think it’s Oral Roberts. Vanderbilt has shown that they have only one thing in mind when they take the floor – shoot it deep, and shoot it often. (Okay, that’s two things, but you get my point). If Vandy gets hot, they can beat good teams, as evidenced by wins against Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida. But if they don’t, they can also lose to bad teams (like Furman and Appalachian State.) Oral Roberts made a lot of noise earlier in the year by beating Kansas, and later Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles are led by Sr. forward Caleb Green, (the three time conference POY) and Sr. guard Ken “King” Tutt. These teams are similar in that they both play about nine guys regularly and are heavy laden with seniors and juniors. Only OR's shooting guard Marchello Vealy (a soph. who dropped seven three’s on the Jayhawks) is a younger starter. Green and shot blocking center Shawn King give Oral Roberts an inside presence that Vandy can’t match. If the three’s aren’t falling fast and furious for Vanderbilt, make the Golden Eagles this year’s Cinderella. The only thing crazier than this - Oral Roberts actualy matches up well with Georgetown if they meet in the Sweet 16.

Regional:
Texas (4) v. North Carolina (1)
Kevin Durant is hands down the best player in the country. I fought this for most of the season, ‘cause I don’t like freshmen, but it’s true. The longhorns only have two losses this season where their opponent scored fewer than 87 points, so they can definitely put the ball in the basket. This game will set the tournament record for most starting freshmen and sophomores (only Sr. forward Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina avoids that distinction), but don’t expect that to affect the level of play. The Tar Heels may be the only team in the country deep enough to continually run guys at Durant for 40 minutes. That will be important because the only way to beat Texas is to make Durant take a ton of shots at a low percentage. Even then, you’ve got to worry about guards D.J. Augustin (best freshman guard in the country) and A.J. Abrams knocking down shots from the perimeter. As deep as the Heels are, they will need center Tyler Hansbrough to be aggressive inside and play the role that Jokim Noah did last year for Florida if they want to advance to the Final Four. I’m picking the Tar Heels here for two reasons, one, I think that Reyshawn Terry will be the toughest defender that Durant has seen all year. And two, the Heels can score 90 on Texas, and that will be enough to beat them.

Midwest Region:
Second Round
Notre Dame (6) v. Oregon (3)
Oregon is a little over rated and Notre Dame is a little under rated, so this should be a fairly even match up. The center of attraction here is Duck’s guard Aaron Brooks. Brooks should have been the PAC-10 player of the year (UCLA’s Aaron Afflalo won it) and he is a real showman when it comes to theatrics on the basketball court. He and fellow backcourt mate Tajuan Porter can get hot from three point range and put teams under quickly. That being said, Oregon relies to heavily on Brooks to win games. Notre Dame is led by a pair of senior guards, Collin Falls and Russell Carter, who can match Oregon’s prowess at shooting from distance. Freshman forward Luke Harangody has become a vital inside presence for the Irish over the second half of the season. This will be a great match up of senior guards in Brooks and Falls. If Notre Dame can control the post (I think they will) it will open things up for their shooters. Go Irish.

Regional
Butler (5) v. Florida (1)
Florida reminds me too much of Connecticut last year. They are immensely talented, a little lazy mentally, and like to wait around until the second half before turning it on. That usually leads to upsets in the tournament. Butler certainly has the resume of a giant killer. They began the year with winning 12 of their first 13 games, including at Notre Dame, Indiana, at Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Purdue. With their age and tournament experience, the Gators certainly won’t awe them, and they’ll believe they can win. Florida guard Tuarean Green will need to keep up the tempo against the Bulldogs, and the rest of the Gators will have to keep up. As experienced as Florida is, they only go about seven deep, with all five starters averaging more than 25 min per game. If they get tired from pushing the tempo, or get into foul trouble, look out. I like Butler in the biggest bracket buster upset of the tourney. Well, maybe the second biggest…

West Region:
Second Round
Gonzaga (10) v. UCLA (2)
What do we know about the tournament? It’s about guard play, coaching, and style. UCLA has good guards. Afflalo (16.7 ppg) is the PAC-10 POY, and Darren Collison (12.6 ppg) was voted first team All-Conference. Ben Howland is one of the best defensive coaches in the country (UCLA allows only 60.6 points per game), mainly because of the swarming defense of their great backcourt. But offensively, the Bruins have a negative turnover margin (-0.8) and have an assist to turn over ratio of only 1.21:1. Most of Afflalo’s points come off of turnovers and fast breaks. The Bruins can be beaten if their guards are forced to produce in the half court and consistently make jump shots.
Gonzaga’s guards Derek Raivio (18.2 ppg) and Jeremy Pargo (12.2 ppg), probably my second favorite player in the country, score more, and are deeper. Soph. guard Micha Downs missed the first half of the season for the Bulldogs, but came on to be a big factor for the Zag’s in the second half. They have only four losses since Downs’ return to the lineup. Mark Few is making his ninth consecutive trip to the tournament this year after having dealt with the loss of their best player in mid season. They have a turnover margin of +1.0, and score over 70 ppg. The Zag’s also have a committee of post players in Sean Mallon, David Pendergraft and Abdullahi Kusso who combine for 20 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. UCLA’s Josh Shipp and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute counter with a strong inside presence for the Bruins. The big contrast here is style of play. UCLA likes to grind you down and get after it defensively, whereas Gonzaga is more up-tempo. The team that hits from the outside and can control the pace of the game will have the big advantage. My pick? Gonzaga. It’s been too long since they’ve surprised anyone in the tourney.

Regional
Pitt (3) v. UCLA (2)
I know I just picked UCLA to lose before this mach-up, but it’s the only interesting potential regional game in the West (my apologies to Southern Illinois). This was the one that made everyone’s eyebrows rise the second the brackets were announced. The idea of Ben Howland facing his former team coached by his protégé Jamie Dixon is what tournament games are all about. These two play identical styles (of course) and dominate their own ends of the country. Seven foot Sr. center Aaron Gray has led Pitt all season. He is a dominant force inside, especially in slow paced, drag out games like this one would be. In this game the Bruins would be dependant on their guards, and against Pitt they would have a decided advantage. Panther’s guards Levance Fields and Antonio Graves are good, but undersized. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one finished with a final score in the 60’s. If these teams do meet, I would take UCLA. Dixon has done a great job at Pitt, but he’s not Ben Howland quite yet.