1. Oklahoma (9-1) – Easy wins like last week's over Baylor should be repeated until the Sooners play for the Big 12 Championship
2. Oregon (8-1) – After a well deserved bye, the Ducks will look to avoid an upset over the next two weeks
3. Kansas (10-0) – Another convincing win at Oklahoma State keeps the Jayhawks undefeated. At this point it looks like the Big 12 is almost assured of a spot in the NC game.
4. West Virginia (8-1) – Pat White’s heroics led the Mountaineers past Louisville on Saturday. Playing at Cincy and returning home for UConn will test West Virginia’s mettle, and prove whether or not they belong in the top four.
5. LSU (9-1) – No style points for thrashing LA Teach. The Tigers should have no trouble with Old Miss next week, but they haven’t shown that they can separate from the rest of the SEC, making their final games against Arkansas, and either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship potential upsets.
6. Missouri (9-1) – I’m already looking to see when tickets for NEXT year’s Mizzou – Kansas game go on sale! I have to see Chase Daniels and Todd Reesing myself. The Tigers must be careful though; this week’s game at K-State has “trap game” written all over it if they look ahead to Kansas.
7. Ohio State (10-1) – The Buckeyes losing wasn’t really a surprise, only because they hadn’t been very battle tested this season. The loser of this week’s game in Ann Arbor will likely be shut out of the BCS.
8. Arizona St (9-1) – The Sun Devils were able to rebound against UCLA, but must prove themselves when they host USC on Saturday to remain in the top 10.
9. Hawaii (9-0) – The Warriors remain undefeated, but at this point it looks like the voters are determined to keep them out of the BCS. No two-loss team deserves to be ranked over the Warriors. Don’t punish Hawaii when these other teams can’t handle their business, it isn’t fair.
10. Georgia (8-2) – Georgia has steadily climbed the rankings the past few weeks after four straight convincing wins (hear that LSU- convincing wins) over their last four SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are the best team in their conference right now, and will finish up their SEC schedule against Kentucky this week with a conference title appearance on the line.
11. Boise State (9-1) – Boise has been getting jumped a bit in most polls for not distinguishing themselves. They didn’t do much in that regard in their 52-0 spanking of Utah State over the weekend, but they should be fired up for Idaho this week before a chance to flex some muscle at Hawaii the week after.
12. V Tech (8-2) – Two strong wins heading into Miami (Fl) should keep the Hokies rolling. This is another trap scenario with the Virginia game two weeks away, and V Tech’s propensity to crap themselves against The Huricanes.
13. Virginia (9-2) – The Cavaliers get two weeks to get ready for the biggest game to hit Charlottesville’s Scott Stadium in years when the rival Hokies come to town. Virginia has been one of the biggest surprises in the country this year, and will look to continue their improbable run at an ACC championship in two weeks.
14. Florida (7-3) – Florida wrapped up their SEC schedule by smacking down the Ol’ Ball Coach on the road. It won’t be enough to keep them in the SEC picture, but a 10-win season is still in reach for Urban Meyer and the Gators.
15. Tennessee (7-3) – Tennessee will need some help to stay alive for the SEC title, but the high-flying Volls can do their part by beating Vandy this week.
16. Clemson (8-2) – The Tigers continue to roll, winning their forth straight by clobbering Wake Forrest. This week’s mach-up against BC is virtually an ACC semifinal.
17. USC (8-2) – The Trojans came away with a wet and sloppy road win at Cal, but will have to beat Arizona State to prove that they are still in the top three in the Pac-10.
18. Texas (9-2) – The Longhorn’s narrow victory over Texas Tech showed their vulnerability for the second week in a row. Their slim chance at a possible Big 12 title shot will be on the line as they travel to Kyle Field this week.
19. Michigan (8-3) – It’s hard to be too critical of the Wolverines for losing at Camp Randall without their starting QB or Mike Hart. Ohio State losing was huge for Michigan as well, because the Big 10 doesn’t have tie breakers, meaning that even if the Buckeyes and Wolverines both finished with the same record, Ohio St. still would likely have gone to the Rose Bowl even if they lost to Michigan. Luckily, that scenario has been avoided.
20. UConn (8-2) – The Huskies had a setback this week after being stifled by Cincy’s outstanding defense. The Big East emerged early this year as the best defensive conference in the nation (Rutgers, USF, & Cincy are all top 10 D’s) making it unrealistic to go undefeated in conference play, but UConn has a chance to show they belong when they finish the year @ UWV.
21. Illinois (8-3) – After upending Ohio State’s national title hopes, the Illini are definitely set in the right direction. QB Juice Williams and RB Rashard Mendanhall will be popular pre-season Heisman candidates in '08.
22. Wisconsin (8-3) – The Badgers held serve against Michigan last week and will likely finish the season with 10 wins.
23. Boston College (8-2) – BC’s season continues to unravel with consecutive losses to unranked teams. A trip to Clemson will either turn around a disappointing finish, or complete a total collapse.
24. BYU (7-2) – The Cougars remain at 24 after a hard fought win over TCU. A trap game awaits the Coug’s this week in Laramie, as they must avoid looking ahead to Utah against a Wyoming team that got embarrassed last week.
25. Penn St (8-3) – The Nittany Lion’s win over temple wont raise them in the rankings. Say what you will about the strength of the Big 10 conference, but they will place 10 teams in bowl games this year. That’s a solid accomplishment that the conference should be proud of.
Conference Breakdown: Pac 10 – 3 teams, Big 12 – 4 teams, Big 10 – 5 teams, Big East – 2 teams, ACC – 4 teams, SEC – 4 teams, Non-BCS – 3.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Top 25: Week 10
1. Oklahoma (8-1) – Against A & M, The Sooners scored over 40 points for the sixth time in nine games this season. Oklahoma is the best team top to bottom in the country, and even with a loss, their ranking should reflect that.
2. Oregon (8-1) – Oregon comes off a convincing win against one of the top teams in the country to jump to #2. The Ducks are riding the Heisman talents of Denis Dixon and “The Daily Show” Jonathan Stewart all the way to the Sugar Bowl.
3. Ohio State (10-0) – I like Ohio State, I really do. QB Todd Boeckman and WR Brian Robiskie have been outstanding this year, and their defense is one of the best in the land. But I just can’t see the Buckeyes holding up against either of the top two. Not at a neutral site. If the title were decided by a playoff, I would leave the Buckeyes at #1, and let them show me otherwise on the field, but as that is not the case, I simply don’t think they’re the best team.
4. Kansas (9-0) – I hope Bill Callahan has his resume ready. The Jayhawks went out to make a statement against Nebraska on Saturday, and did so by hanging 76 on the defense formerly known as the Black Shirts. As surprising as that was, it was the actually the fifth time this year that the Kansas offense has scored more than 50 points. They have also obliterated all standards of decorum when it comes to dropping teams after wins or byes. I can’t wait for their 11/24 match-up against Mizzou. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
5. West Virginia (7-1) – The Mountaineers are the victims of a bye week as Kansas jumps them. They probably wont lose again, but that may not be enough to climb back into the NC picture. That’s too bad, ‘cause they are as good as anyone else in the country.
6. LSU (8-1) – The Tigers continue to prove that they are beatable for every other team in the SEC. They deserve credit for winning close games (and yes, being ranked sixth is plenty of credit), but they don’t dominate anyone and still make a lot of mistakes.
7. Missouri (8-1) – The problems at A & M are about to get a whole lot worse when the Chase Daniels show roles through College Station this Saturday. The Big 12 has risen to prominence with three teams in the top seven.
8. Boston College (8-1) – The glass slipper finally shattered for BC against Florida State. Matt Ryan couldn’t will the Eagles to victory, and in the current flawed system, it will cost them an opportunity to play for a title.
9. Arizona St (8-1) – Another undefeated to go down last week, Arizona state now must hope for help to win the Pac 10. The next chance to prove themselves will be in two weeks against USC.
10. Hawaii (8-0) – The Warriors won’t drop until they lose. That could happen in two weeks at Nevada, or later when they host Boise.
11. Michigan (8-2) – The Wolverines narrowly avoided a major setback in their quest for the Big 10 title. If they can stay unbeaten going into Ohio St, they may save Lloyd Carr’s job.
12. UConn (8-1) – The Huskies are rolling through the Big East, with a tough game at Cincy this week. A season ending meeting with West Virginia may be the only thing standing between UConn and a BCS appearance.
13. Boise State (8-1) – The Broncos continue to win and continue to look forward to their season ender at Hawaii
14. V Tech (7-2) – A convincing road win against Georgia Tech keeps the Hokies in the divers seat in the ACC
15. Georgia (8-2) – Georgia did nothing to impress while giving up 34 points to Troy. A brutal two week home stand against Auburn and Kentucky will severely test the Bulldogs.
16. Virginia (8-2) – A narrow victory over Wake Forrest keeps the Cavaliers even with rival Virginia Tech down the stretch in the ACC
17. Alabama (6-3) – The Crimson Tide almost pulled the upset against LSU. This is higher than a three-loss team should normally be ranked, but once again, no one is stepping up to take the spot.
18. USC (7-2) – The Trojans Looked better with John Davis Booty back under center. Their next two games at Cal and at Arizona State will determine whether or not this team is Las Vegas Bowl bound.
19. Texas (8-2) – It’s not often that a team should feel embarrassed after a win, but the Longhorns should feel embarrassed after that win. What are they doing trailing that much to OSU? Come on Texas, you’re the fourth best team in the Big 12. Show me something.
20. Florida (6-3) – The Gators gave it to Vanderbilt on Saturday, but that should be expected. The Old Ball Coach will be waiting up in South Carolina to avenge last year’s loss in Gainesville.
21. Tennessee (6-3) – UT handled LA Laffayette in what was apparently the SEC’s non-conference week off. With Georgia’s tough schedule to finish the season, Tennessee may have a shot to play their way into the SEC championship.
22. Clemson (7-2) – Give credit to Clemson for not folding after back-to-back mid-season losses. We usually expect the Tigers to struggle in the second half, but they have run off three in a row, with their next two at home.
23. Wake Forrest (6-3) – The Demon Deacon’s loss a heartbreaker by a point at Virginia, and must now travel to Clemson. Repeating as ACC champs may be unrealistic at this point.
24. BYU (6-2) – Another convincing win against Colorado State set’s the stage for a tough MWC run against TCU, at Wyoming, and home against rival Utah. The young Cougar offense will be in for a test when the Horned Frogs come to Provo.
T- 25. Wisconsin (7-3)/Penn St (7-3) – PSU has lost at Illinois, at Michigan, and to Ohio St. UW has lost at Illinois, at Penn St, and at Ohio St. Not a great deal separates these two teams, not until the Badgers host Michigan this week.
Conference Breakdown: Pac 10 – 3 teams, Big 12 – 4 teams, Big 10 – 4 teams, Big East – 2 teams, ACC – 5 teams, SEC – 5 teams, Non-BCS – 3.
2. Oregon (8-1) – Oregon comes off a convincing win against one of the top teams in the country to jump to #2. The Ducks are riding the Heisman talents of Denis Dixon and “The Daily Show” Jonathan Stewart all the way to the Sugar Bowl.
3. Ohio State (10-0) – I like Ohio State, I really do. QB Todd Boeckman and WR Brian Robiskie have been outstanding this year, and their defense is one of the best in the land. But I just can’t see the Buckeyes holding up against either of the top two. Not at a neutral site. If the title were decided by a playoff, I would leave the Buckeyes at #1, and let them show me otherwise on the field, but as that is not the case, I simply don’t think they’re the best team.
4. Kansas (9-0) – I hope Bill Callahan has his resume ready. The Jayhawks went out to make a statement against Nebraska on Saturday, and did so by hanging 76 on the defense formerly known as the Black Shirts. As surprising as that was, it was the actually the fifth time this year that the Kansas offense has scored more than 50 points. They have also obliterated all standards of decorum when it comes to dropping teams after wins or byes. I can’t wait for their 11/24 match-up against Mizzou. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
5. West Virginia (7-1) – The Mountaineers are the victims of a bye week as Kansas jumps them. They probably wont lose again, but that may not be enough to climb back into the NC picture. That’s too bad, ‘cause they are as good as anyone else in the country.
6. LSU (8-1) – The Tigers continue to prove that they are beatable for every other team in the SEC. They deserve credit for winning close games (and yes, being ranked sixth is plenty of credit), but they don’t dominate anyone and still make a lot of mistakes.
7. Missouri (8-1) – The problems at A & M are about to get a whole lot worse when the Chase Daniels show roles through College Station this Saturday. The Big 12 has risen to prominence with three teams in the top seven.
8. Boston College (8-1) – The glass slipper finally shattered for BC against Florida State. Matt Ryan couldn’t will the Eagles to victory, and in the current flawed system, it will cost them an opportunity to play for a title.
9. Arizona St (8-1) – Another undefeated to go down last week, Arizona state now must hope for help to win the Pac 10. The next chance to prove themselves will be in two weeks against USC.
10. Hawaii (8-0) – The Warriors won’t drop until they lose. That could happen in two weeks at Nevada, or later when they host Boise.
11. Michigan (8-2) – The Wolverines narrowly avoided a major setback in their quest for the Big 10 title. If they can stay unbeaten going into Ohio St, they may save Lloyd Carr’s job.
12. UConn (8-1) – The Huskies are rolling through the Big East, with a tough game at Cincy this week. A season ending meeting with West Virginia may be the only thing standing between UConn and a BCS appearance.
13. Boise State (8-1) – The Broncos continue to win and continue to look forward to their season ender at Hawaii
14. V Tech (7-2) – A convincing road win against Georgia Tech keeps the Hokies in the divers seat in the ACC
15. Georgia (8-2) – Georgia did nothing to impress while giving up 34 points to Troy. A brutal two week home stand against Auburn and Kentucky will severely test the Bulldogs.
16. Virginia (8-2) – A narrow victory over Wake Forrest keeps the Cavaliers even with rival Virginia Tech down the stretch in the ACC
17. Alabama (6-3) – The Crimson Tide almost pulled the upset against LSU. This is higher than a three-loss team should normally be ranked, but once again, no one is stepping up to take the spot.
18. USC (7-2) – The Trojans Looked better with John Davis Booty back under center. Their next two games at Cal and at Arizona State will determine whether or not this team is Las Vegas Bowl bound.
19. Texas (8-2) – It’s not often that a team should feel embarrassed after a win, but the Longhorns should feel embarrassed after that win. What are they doing trailing that much to OSU? Come on Texas, you’re the fourth best team in the Big 12. Show me something.
20. Florida (6-3) – The Gators gave it to Vanderbilt on Saturday, but that should be expected. The Old Ball Coach will be waiting up in South Carolina to avenge last year’s loss in Gainesville.
21. Tennessee (6-3) – UT handled LA Laffayette in what was apparently the SEC’s non-conference week off. With Georgia’s tough schedule to finish the season, Tennessee may have a shot to play their way into the SEC championship.
22. Clemson (7-2) – Give credit to Clemson for not folding after back-to-back mid-season losses. We usually expect the Tigers to struggle in the second half, but they have run off three in a row, with their next two at home.
23. Wake Forrest (6-3) – The Demon Deacon’s loss a heartbreaker by a point at Virginia, and must now travel to Clemson. Repeating as ACC champs may be unrealistic at this point.
24. BYU (6-2) – Another convincing win against Colorado State set’s the stage for a tough MWC run against TCU, at Wyoming, and home against rival Utah. The young Cougar offense will be in for a test when the Horned Frogs come to Provo.
T- 25. Wisconsin (7-3)/Penn St (7-3) – PSU has lost at Illinois, at Michigan, and to Ohio St. UW has lost at Illinois, at Penn St, and at Ohio St. Not a great deal separates these two teams, not until the Badgers host Michigan this week.
Conference Breakdown: Pac 10 – 3 teams, Big 12 – 4 teams, Big 10 – 4 teams, Big East – 2 teams, ACC – 5 teams, SEC – 5 teams, Non-BCS – 3.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Top 25
After week nine, it’s time to release my initial college football top 25 rankings. By waiting until the half way point of the season, the poll is not influenced (as much) by pre season polls, but based primarily on each team’s performance on the field from week one on.
1. Boston College (9-0) – Matt Ryan’s Heisman campaign got a boost after his last minute heroics against Virginia Tech. BC at number one may be a surprise to some, but let’s face it, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Ohio State, (wins over Wake Forrest, @ Ga. Tech, and @ V Tech) and with the best O-line in the nation, they will never be out of any game.
2. Ohio State (9-0) – Wins at Purdue and at Penn State are decent, but not quite noteworthy. The Buckeye defense is one of the top three or four in the country though, and they may be the only team other than BC with a legit chance to go undefeated throughout the season.
3. Oklahoma (7-1) – Even with one loss, the Sooners are best overall team in the country. With an explosive offense putting up nearly 55 points per game, their only real test the rest of the way will be in the Big 12 Championship game against an undefeated Kansas team, or a rematch with Mizzou.
4. Arizona St (8-0)– The Sun Devils have stood up to every challenge along the way under coach Dennis Erickson, including Cal (the one team that beat Oregon). This week’s match up against the Ducks may very well determine who plays for the National Title.
5. Oregon (7-1) – The Ducks are ranked behind Arizona St. because they gave away a game at home against Cal. The general consensus is that they are better than the Sun Devils, but until they beat them, they are still the second best team in the Pac-10.
6. West Virginia (7-1) – The best of the one-loss teams, West Virginia is as explosive as any team in the country when they are healthy. A one-possession loss at South Florida is the only thing keeping the Mountaineers from being ranked #1 right now. Dismantling a good Rutgers team last week showed how dominant this UWV team really is.
7. LSU (7-1) – This may seem unusually low for those who still think that the Tigers are a shoe in for the BCS championship, but there is one thing we know for sure about LSU - they are not markedly better than UK, Auburn, or Florida (and look where those teams are ranked). For over a year now, this myth about the superiority of the SEC has been promulgated throughout college football. Here’s a reality check: the SEC is not significantly better than the other conferences. It’s not. By the way, if the Tigers lose at ‘Bama on Saturday, the SEC won’t have a single team ranked in the top 10.
8. Kansas (8-0) The Jayhawks have had little trouble running through their conference schedule, with road wins at K State, at Colorado, and at Texas A&M. How crazy is this? Their Thanksgiving match up with Missouri may be the game of the year in the Big 12. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
9. Missouri (7-1) The Tigers only loss, a 10-point game at Oklahoma has kept them from the top 3. (Man, this is a strange year in college football.) QB Chase Daniels is one of the more entertaining players in the country. He has thrown for fewer than 300 yards only three times this season (he dropped 400 on Nebraska) and is completing 70% of his passes.
10. Hawaii (8-0) I couldn’t believe it myself when Hawaii landed in the top 10, but here they are. I know they haven’t played anybody, and Colt Brennan threw 5 picks against Idaho and 4 against San Jose St. But this is the point: We don’t really know how good the Warriors are, but we also don’t know how bad they are. If they win at Boise St on 11/23 and stay undefeated, they deserve a shot at a BCS game. And if they win it like Boise did last year, the BCS needs to lose its conference affiliations and become evenly open for everyone.
11. Michigan (7-2) – That’s right, Michigan. The fact is, the Wolverines are playing great football right now. Of course they had a couple of bad losses to some good teams to start the year, but they’ve won seven in a row since then, at this point they look like they’re going to win the Big 10. Big games still remain at Camp Randall, and against some other team from Ohio.
12. Wake Forrest (6-2) The defending ACC champs have hit their stride, winning six straight after dropping their first two to BC and Nebraska by a combined 13 points. Two daunting road games loom at Virginia and at Clemson in the next two weeks for the Demon Deacons. Those two games will make or break this season for Wake.
13. UConn (7-1) This is another team that seems to be ranked a little too high, but they haven’t lost enough to go much lower. They got sidetracked a little with a loss at Virginia, but the Huskies are the top team in the Big East right now. They are currently in the middle of a treacherous four game stretch against Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, and Cincinnati, before a season ending tilt at West Virginia
14. Boise State (7-1) The Broncos fell of the radar after losing at Washington in the second week of the season. Other than a 69-67 win at Nevada, they have coasted since. Their 11/23 trip to Hawaii could have BCS implications
15. Georgia (6-2) At this point there are six SEC teams that are all pretty much the same. I ranked three of them, separating them primarily by who has the worst losses. A four point loss at home to South Carolina and a loss at Tennessee are tough to criticize. Georgia has as good a chance as anyone to win the SEC.
16. Alabama (6-2) ’Bama has done a nice job rebounding from a bad 2006. A home loss to Georgia wont cost them much, but losing to Florida State keeps them out of the top 15. Hosting LSU on Saturday will be a golden opportunity for the Crimson Tide to control their own destiny in the SEC West.
17. V Tech (6-2) Tech has had to deal with unrealistic expectations after being raked too high at the beginning of the season. Their defense is as good as advertised, but offensively, they don’t scare anybody. They have lost to the only two really good teams they have played, but can prove their mettle in their next four games (at Ga. Tech, Florida St, Miami, at Virginia).
18. Texas (7-2) Other than the Kansas State loss, this year’s Texas team has actually performed quite well. Colt McCoy is fourth in the nation in passing yards (though he does turn it over too much), and Nebraska was the last real test left on Texas’s schedule. Sadly, the two conference losses will likely prevent the Longhorns from finishing higher than third in the Big 12.
19. Purdue (7-2) If the Boilermakers were in the SEC they’d be ranked 12th in the AP. Come on! Their only losses are to Ohio State and at Michigan! They score 45.5 points per game! Perhaps a win in Happy Valley this week will win them a little more support, but I doubt it.
20. USC (6-2) I hear a lot about SC’s “superior athletes.” If these are superior athletes, than they should join the track team, ‘cause they aren’t great football players. I know that the Trojans have had health issues, but this offense looks like Florida State’s! They have had spotty QB play, and little help from the skill positions. USC hasn’t been able to dominate in conference for a couple of years now, and it’s finally caught up to them. With road games remaining against Cal and Arizona St, and UCLA at home to close the season, the most surprising thing I could think of right now would be if this team were to loose fewer than two more conference games this year.
21. South Florida (6-2) The Bulls were a great Cinderella story two weeks ago, but the Big East is too good a conference for any team to run through undefeated. Two tough road losses to Rutgers and UConn dropped USF all the way from the number two spot. Unfortunately, there is little left on the Bulls’ schedule to redeem them much this season.
22. Florida (5-3) Loosing 38% of your games through nine weeks would drop just about anyone else in the country all together. The Gators are still here likely to Bias, but also because there aren’t many teams that have stepped up to take their spot. That being said, Florida is as good as LSU, and they’re ranked 7th. Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin keep Florida as explosive as anyone offensively. Now, if they could just cover someone…
23. Virginia (7-2) The Cavaliers looked like they were all but trying to get Al Groh fired after their pathetic week one showing at Wyoming. But now, even after a close loss at NC State, they still control their own destiny leading into a season ending clash with chief rival Virginia Tech, with the winner likely playing for the ACC title, and a BCS birth.
24. Tennessee (5-3) The Volunteers are another one of those SEC teams that look like everyone else. If not for their inability to win on the road, they would be one of the most feared offenses in football. This shouldn’t be a problem until their next road game, 11/23 at Kentucky.
25. BYU (5-2) After two tough early season losses, The Cougars and their young offense have rebounded with four straight wins. The two time defending MWC champs, BYU has won 15 of their last 17, (dating back to last season) and 12 consecutive conference games.
Conference Breakdown: Pac 10 – 3 teams, Big 12 – 4 teams, Big 10 – 3 teams, Big East – 3 teams, ACC – 4 teams, SEC – 5 teams, Non-BCS – 3.
1. Boston College (9-0) – Matt Ryan’s Heisman campaign got a boost after his last minute heroics against Virginia Tech. BC at number one may be a surprise to some, but let’s face it, they’ve played a tougher schedule than Ohio State, (wins over Wake Forrest, @ Ga. Tech, and @ V Tech) and with the best O-line in the nation, they will never be out of any game.
2. Ohio State (9-0) – Wins at Purdue and at Penn State are decent, but not quite noteworthy. The Buckeye defense is one of the top three or four in the country though, and they may be the only team other than BC with a legit chance to go undefeated throughout the season.
3. Oklahoma (7-1) – Even with one loss, the Sooners are best overall team in the country. With an explosive offense putting up nearly 55 points per game, their only real test the rest of the way will be in the Big 12 Championship game against an undefeated Kansas team, or a rematch with Mizzou.
4. Arizona St (8-0)– The Sun Devils have stood up to every challenge along the way under coach Dennis Erickson, including Cal (the one team that beat Oregon). This week’s match up against the Ducks may very well determine who plays for the National Title.
5. Oregon (7-1) – The Ducks are ranked behind Arizona St. because they gave away a game at home against Cal. The general consensus is that they are better than the Sun Devils, but until they beat them, they are still the second best team in the Pac-10.
6. West Virginia (7-1) – The best of the one-loss teams, West Virginia is as explosive as any team in the country when they are healthy. A one-possession loss at South Florida is the only thing keeping the Mountaineers from being ranked #1 right now. Dismantling a good Rutgers team last week showed how dominant this UWV team really is.
7. LSU (7-1) – This may seem unusually low for those who still think that the Tigers are a shoe in for the BCS championship, but there is one thing we know for sure about LSU - they are not markedly better than UK, Auburn, or Florida (and look where those teams are ranked). For over a year now, this myth about the superiority of the SEC has been promulgated throughout college football. Here’s a reality check: the SEC is not significantly better than the other conferences. It’s not. By the way, if the Tigers lose at ‘Bama on Saturday, the SEC won’t have a single team ranked in the top 10.
8. Kansas (8-0) The Jayhawks have had little trouble running through their conference schedule, with road wins at K State, at Colorado, and at Texas A&M. How crazy is this? Their Thanksgiving match up with Missouri may be the game of the year in the Big 12. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
9. Missouri (7-1) The Tigers only loss, a 10-point game at Oklahoma has kept them from the top 3. (Man, this is a strange year in college football.) QB Chase Daniels is one of the more entertaining players in the country. He has thrown for fewer than 300 yards only three times this season (he dropped 400 on Nebraska) and is completing 70% of his passes.
10. Hawaii (8-0) I couldn’t believe it myself when Hawaii landed in the top 10, but here they are. I know they haven’t played anybody, and Colt Brennan threw 5 picks against Idaho and 4 against San Jose St. But this is the point: We don’t really know how good the Warriors are, but we also don’t know how bad they are. If they win at Boise St on 11/23 and stay undefeated, they deserve a shot at a BCS game. And if they win it like Boise did last year, the BCS needs to lose its conference affiliations and become evenly open for everyone.
11. Michigan (7-2) – That’s right, Michigan. The fact is, the Wolverines are playing great football right now. Of course they had a couple of bad losses to some good teams to start the year, but they’ve won seven in a row since then, at this point they look like they’re going to win the Big 10. Big games still remain at Camp Randall, and against some other team from Ohio.
12. Wake Forrest (6-2) The defending ACC champs have hit their stride, winning six straight after dropping their first two to BC and Nebraska by a combined 13 points. Two daunting road games loom at Virginia and at Clemson in the next two weeks for the Demon Deacons. Those two games will make or break this season for Wake.
13. UConn (7-1) This is another team that seems to be ranked a little too high, but they haven’t lost enough to go much lower. They got sidetracked a little with a loss at Virginia, but the Huskies are the top team in the Big East right now. They are currently in the middle of a treacherous four game stretch against Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, and Cincinnati, before a season ending tilt at West Virginia
14. Boise State (7-1) The Broncos fell of the radar after losing at Washington in the second week of the season. Other than a 69-67 win at Nevada, they have coasted since. Their 11/23 trip to Hawaii could have BCS implications
15. Georgia (6-2) At this point there are six SEC teams that are all pretty much the same. I ranked three of them, separating them primarily by who has the worst losses. A four point loss at home to South Carolina and a loss at Tennessee are tough to criticize. Georgia has as good a chance as anyone to win the SEC.
16. Alabama (6-2) ’Bama has done a nice job rebounding from a bad 2006. A home loss to Georgia wont cost them much, but losing to Florida State keeps them out of the top 15. Hosting LSU on Saturday will be a golden opportunity for the Crimson Tide to control their own destiny in the SEC West.
17. V Tech (6-2) Tech has had to deal with unrealistic expectations after being raked too high at the beginning of the season. Their defense is as good as advertised, but offensively, they don’t scare anybody. They have lost to the only two really good teams they have played, but can prove their mettle in their next four games (at Ga. Tech, Florida St, Miami, at Virginia).
18. Texas (7-2) Other than the Kansas State loss, this year’s Texas team has actually performed quite well. Colt McCoy is fourth in the nation in passing yards (though he does turn it over too much), and Nebraska was the last real test left on Texas’s schedule. Sadly, the two conference losses will likely prevent the Longhorns from finishing higher than third in the Big 12.
19. Purdue (7-2) If the Boilermakers were in the SEC they’d be ranked 12th in the AP. Come on! Their only losses are to Ohio State and at Michigan! They score 45.5 points per game! Perhaps a win in Happy Valley this week will win them a little more support, but I doubt it.
20. USC (6-2) I hear a lot about SC’s “superior athletes.” If these are superior athletes, than they should join the track team, ‘cause they aren’t great football players. I know that the Trojans have had health issues, but this offense looks like Florida State’s! They have had spotty QB play, and little help from the skill positions. USC hasn’t been able to dominate in conference for a couple of years now, and it’s finally caught up to them. With road games remaining against Cal and Arizona St, and UCLA at home to close the season, the most surprising thing I could think of right now would be if this team were to loose fewer than two more conference games this year.
21. South Florida (6-2) The Bulls were a great Cinderella story two weeks ago, but the Big East is too good a conference for any team to run through undefeated. Two tough road losses to Rutgers and UConn dropped USF all the way from the number two spot. Unfortunately, there is little left on the Bulls’ schedule to redeem them much this season.
22. Florida (5-3) Loosing 38% of your games through nine weeks would drop just about anyone else in the country all together. The Gators are still here likely to Bias, but also because there aren’t many teams that have stepped up to take their spot. That being said, Florida is as good as LSU, and they’re ranked 7th. Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin keep Florida as explosive as anyone offensively. Now, if they could just cover someone…
23. Virginia (7-2) The Cavaliers looked like they were all but trying to get Al Groh fired after their pathetic week one showing at Wyoming. But now, even after a close loss at NC State, they still control their own destiny leading into a season ending clash with chief rival Virginia Tech, with the winner likely playing for the ACC title, and a BCS birth.
24. Tennessee (5-3) The Volunteers are another one of those SEC teams that look like everyone else. If not for their inability to win on the road, they would be one of the most feared offenses in football. This shouldn’t be a problem until their next road game, 11/23 at Kentucky.
25. BYU (5-2) After two tough early season losses, The Cougars and their young offense have rebounded with four straight wins. The two time defending MWC champs, BYU has won 15 of their last 17, (dating back to last season) and 12 consecutive conference games.
Conference Breakdown: Pac 10 – 3 teams, Big 12 – 4 teams, Big 10 – 3 teams, Big East – 3 teams, ACC – 4 teams, SEC – 5 teams, Non-BCS – 3.
Monday, June 11, 2007
Man's Men
A while ago I was watching the movie “300”, about the 300 Spartan warriors who fought at the Battle of Thermopylae. The Spartans would have followed their kick ass leader, Leonidas, anywhere, against anyone. Men like Leonidas don’t exist today, not in great frequency anyway. Not since Patton. Many Americans don’t want manly men anymore. They want guys who watch “Friends” and aren’t afraid to cry if Meredith Grey dies. They want soldiers who to try not to kill people when they’re shot at and come home to be metro-sexuals. They want no score kept at little league games and boyfriends that have wedding showers instead of bachelor parties. You get where I’m going here. I fear for small boys who may grow up hero-less.
So who is left? Who are the people that could get you out of a fox hole and charge into battle? I can think of a few, and maybe I’ll add to this later. The list starts here…
1. Ray Lewis
I imagine Ray Lewis, in full army gear, face painted in camo, telling me to get out of a fox- hole and follow him into battle. I’d be more scared of pissing off Ray than I would of the enemy.
I’m not necessarily a huge Ray Lewis fan. I appreciate his talents, but I don’t have pictures of him in my house or anything like that if you know what I mean. Ray Lewis is a linebacker for the Baltimore Ravens NFL franchise. He is one of the better defensive players of his generation, but he is at least as well known for one incident away from the football field. In 2000, Lewis (along with two of his friends) was arrested and charged with the murder of two men in Atlanta. He eventually pleaded down to a misdemeanor charge of obstruction of justice in exchange for his testimony against his two buddies, who were later acquitted. I only mention this incident in the interest of full disclosure about the man. It isn’t his ruthlessness that would draw me to him, but his dance.
If you’ve never seen Ray Lewis do his patented war dance as the smoke clears when he enters the stadium, it’s a sight to behold. It’s reminiscent to me of middle age warfare, when fighting was done face to face- as a means of not only rallying your own men to fight, but striking the fear of God into the heart of your enemy as well. Remember at the beginning of the movie “Gladiator” when the two sides are squaring off against each other before the battle? If the Germans would have had Ray Lewis walk out, face painted, in uniform, and do his war dance, they may have beaten the Romans.
2. Urban Meyer
I didn’t originally intend for this to be a list of football guys, but Meyer is more than a football guy. Urban Meyer is the head football coach at The University of Florida, where he won the 2007 National Championship in just his second year with the Gators. Again here, I am not a big fan of UF, but I’m a huge fan of Meyer’s. Meyer first became a head coach in 2001 at Bowling Green State University, and quickly rose up the ranks to the University of Utah, and then to Florida.
I had the honor of hearing Meyer speak six or seven times while he was at Utah (as most students did), in both large and some very small groups, and spoke to him on a few occasions. There is something that can only be described as magical that happens when Meyer speaks. Something that I imagine would have been similar to Moses. As one of my friends said once, he could speak to a group of grown men in suits and in 45 minutes have them follow him, running out the door screaming, pumping their fists in the air, and not even know why, or where they’re going. If I were sitting on my couch watching TV, and Meyer came in and told me to start vacuuming, I’d do it right away. Not because he scares me or could hurt me, but because I wouldn’t want him to think for a second that I wasn’t the best damn vacuumer in the world. He could sell a ketchup Popsicle to a woman in white gloves, and never, ever make her think that he didn’t have her best interest at heart.
Meyer will eventually go down in history as one of the greatest coaches ever. He will be talked about like Vince Lombardi and Knute Rockne. Trophies will be names after him; maybe even stadiums, and statues will be erected in his likeness (I’m not exaggerating), all because of his gift for motivating people to maximize their potential.
3. Bear Grylls
Bear Grylls is quite possibly the toughest man to ever live. And he’s English! (Quite an anomaly isn’t it?) This brief description is lifted straight from his website:
Bear spent three years with the British Special Forces [like the Army Rangers]. During this time he had a horrendous parachuting accident whilst in southern Africa and broke his back in three places. Yet two years later, after severe rehabilitation, he overcame the odds to become the youngest British climber ever to reach the summit of Mount Everest and return alive. (http://www.beargrylls.com).
You may also have seen Bear on The Discovery Channel's 'Man Vs Wild' TV Series. If you haven’t, you tube the guy. You may see him making a fire with sticks in the mountains, eating a dead zebra like a wolf to keep from starving in the African savannah, jumping into a frozen lake in the European Alps to demonstrate how not to die from hypothermia, squeezing the juice from elephant dung for water, eating live snakes, stalking and killing a jackrabbit, trying to tame and ride a wild horse, or something else that no one would ever think of doing to stay alive in the wild. Bear Grylls could survive longer and more comfortably in any barren wilderness than most people could in a Wall Mart.
So who is left? Who are the people that could get you out of a fox hole and charge into battle? I can think of a few, and maybe I’ll add to this later. The list starts here…
1. Ray Lewis
I imagine Ray Lewis, in full army gear, face painted in camo, telling me to get out of a fox- hole and follow him into battle. I’d be more scared of pissing off Ray than I would of the enemy.
I’m not necessarily a huge Ray Lewis fan. I appreciate his talents, but I don’t have pictures of him in my house or anything like that if you know what I mean. Ray Lewis is a linebacker for the Baltimore Ravens NFL franchise. He is one of the better defensive players of his generation, but he is at least as well known for one incident away from the football field. In 2000, Lewis (along with two of his friends) was arrested and charged with the murder of two men in Atlanta. He eventually pleaded down to a misdemeanor charge of obstruction of justice in exchange for his testimony against his two buddies, who were later acquitted. I only mention this incident in the interest of full disclosure about the man. It isn’t his ruthlessness that would draw me to him, but his dance.
If you’ve never seen Ray Lewis do his patented war dance as the smoke clears when he enters the stadium, it’s a sight to behold. It’s reminiscent to me of middle age warfare, when fighting was done face to face- as a means of not only rallying your own men to fight, but striking the fear of God into the heart of your enemy as well. Remember at the beginning of the movie “Gladiator” when the two sides are squaring off against each other before the battle? If the Germans would have had Ray Lewis walk out, face painted, in uniform, and do his war dance, they may have beaten the Romans.
2. Urban Meyer
I didn’t originally intend for this to be a list of football guys, but Meyer is more than a football guy. Urban Meyer is the head football coach at The University of Florida, where he won the 2007 National Championship in just his second year with the Gators. Again here, I am not a big fan of UF, but I’m a huge fan of Meyer’s. Meyer first became a head coach in 2001 at Bowling Green State University, and quickly rose up the ranks to the University of Utah, and then to Florida.
I had the honor of hearing Meyer speak six or seven times while he was at Utah (as most students did), in both large and some very small groups, and spoke to him on a few occasions. There is something that can only be described as magical that happens when Meyer speaks. Something that I imagine would have been similar to Moses. As one of my friends said once, he could speak to a group of grown men in suits and in 45 minutes have them follow him, running out the door screaming, pumping their fists in the air, and not even know why, or where they’re going. If I were sitting on my couch watching TV, and Meyer came in and told me to start vacuuming, I’d do it right away. Not because he scares me or could hurt me, but because I wouldn’t want him to think for a second that I wasn’t the best damn vacuumer in the world. He could sell a ketchup Popsicle to a woman in white gloves, and never, ever make her think that he didn’t have her best interest at heart.
Meyer will eventually go down in history as one of the greatest coaches ever. He will be talked about like Vince Lombardi and Knute Rockne. Trophies will be names after him; maybe even stadiums, and statues will be erected in his likeness (I’m not exaggerating), all because of his gift for motivating people to maximize their potential.
3. Bear Grylls
Bear Grylls is quite possibly the toughest man to ever live. And he’s English! (Quite an anomaly isn’t it?) This brief description is lifted straight from his website:
Bear spent three years with the British Special Forces [like the Army Rangers]. During this time he had a horrendous parachuting accident whilst in southern Africa and broke his back in three places. Yet two years later, after severe rehabilitation, he overcame the odds to become the youngest British climber ever to reach the summit of Mount Everest and return alive. (http://www.beargrylls.com).
You may also have seen Bear on The Discovery Channel's 'Man Vs Wild' TV Series. If you haven’t, you tube the guy. You may see him making a fire with sticks in the mountains, eating a dead zebra like a wolf to keep from starving in the African savannah, jumping into a frozen lake in the European Alps to demonstrate how not to die from hypothermia, squeezing the juice from elephant dung for water, eating live snakes, stalking and killing a jackrabbit, trying to tame and ride a wild horse, or something else that no one would ever think of doing to stay alive in the wild. Bear Grylls could survive longer and more comfortably in any barren wilderness than most people could in a Wall Mart.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
2007 NFL Mock Draft
2007 NFL Mock Draft
This is an assessment of the most likely ways for teams to improve in this year’s draft. It is not a prediction of what will happen, but rather a representation of whom I believe each team should select for the first 100 picks of the draft. It does not take into account any pre-draft signings or draft day trades. This may be continuously updated until draft day.
1. Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Needs: QB, OL, WR
Russell’s live arm should be a perfect fit for Lane Kiffin’s verticle offense (assuming any of his receivers ever show up), but I swear I heard that with both Kerry Collins and Aaron Brooks. The difference here is that not only were the previous QB’s in Oakland at the end of their careers, but they were also devoid of any semblance of athletic ability inside or outside the pocket. Russell may not scramble like Vince Young, but he has great feet and a good feel for the rush that is sure to come early and often in the Raider offense. There are several positions of need in Oakland, but luckily the Raiders posses five of the first 100 picks in this draft.
Second Round Selection: (33) Steve Smith, WR USC
Third Round Selection: (65) Manuel Ramirez, OG Texas Tech
(99 compensatory) Dan Bazuin, DE Central Michigan
Fourth Round Selection: (100) Chase Johnson, OT Wyoming (Oak)
2. Detroit Lions – Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
Needs: QB, DB, DE
Quinn is the most talented QB in the draft and the Lions are dangerously unstable at the position. With John Kitna’s 35th birthday coming in September, this is the perfect time to bring in a young QB for the future and let him sit for a year before handing him the reigns (a la Carson Palmer). The only question will be if Quinn has the arm it takes to succeed in Mike Martz’s vertical offense.
Second Round Selection: (34) Eric Wright, CB UNLV
Third Round Selection: (66) LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB Michigan
3. Cleveland Browns – Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Needs: RB, DE, CB
This is the pick for Cleveland weather Quinn goes second or not. Bringing in Jamal Lewis with a one year deal isn’t enough to make the Browns feel comfortable at the RB position. Concerns about durability shouldn’t be too big of an issue, as none of AD’s college injuries were the kind that linger or return with regular contact. This is a 20 carry per night workhorse that will keep the Browns in games for years to come.
Second Round Selection: (36) Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue
Third Round Selection: (67) Josh Wilson, CB Maryland
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Thomas, T Wisconsin
Needs: OL, S, TE
The most glaring need of any team in football is Tampa’s O-Line, and here comes the best player in the draft to fill it. Thomas is a road grader, a brick wall in the passing game, and a punishing blocker from the point of attack to the whistle. The only one happier than Gruden at this selection is Cadillac Williams.
Second Round Selection: (35) Turk McBride, DT Tennessee
(64 from Indianapolis) John Wendling, S Wyoming
Third Round Selection: (68) Dallas Baker (The Touchdown Maker), WR Florida
5. Arizona Cardinals – Gains Adams, DE Clemson
Needs: OL, DL, LB, FS
As a Card’s fan I can’t decide if I like Adams better or LaRon Landry, but I think they’re more likely to go DL first. Few players find themselves around the football as much as Adams. At 6’5’’ and 260 lbs, he is as quick an end as you’ll see. Adams has outstanding hands (an underrated quality for a DE) and feet, enabling him to stand up well against the run and beat tackles to the spot regularly. He had to learn a lot about the game in college, having played eight-man football in high school, but has developed into one of the best players in the country. As evidenced by his career at Clemson, dude makes plays- 62 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, 12 passes defensed, two forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries as a senior.
Second Round Selection: (38) Justin Blalock, OT Texas
Third Round Selection: (69) David Harris, ILB Michigan
6. Washington Redskins – Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
Needs: DE, DT, CB
The Redskins will be hoping to hit big with this pick, partly because it’s their only one on the first day. Washington finished 27th against the run in ’06, a death nell in the NFC East, and finished with a league low 19 sacks. The Skins’ lack of picks will make moving this pick the top priority, (the Skins lack the necessary picks to move up, and will only be able to move down if another team is desperate for a player that slips past the top five, like Laron Landry, for example) but strengthening the D Line with this pick will likely be the best option. Anderson will enable them to get more out of their pass rush without becoming vulnerable in the run game. He brings excellent size and quickness as a rusher (13.5 sacks last year at Arkansas) and a strong presence up front (19.5 TFL).
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: None
7. Minnesota Vikings - Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Needs: WR, QB, DE, CB
It isn’t realistic to think that Johnson will fall to seven come draft day, but the six teams above have higher needs than WR. It’s more likely that someone will trade up to get him, but regardless of the order, I think the top ten picks will consist of the same players. That being said, I think there’s a 90% chance the Vikings will trade this pick. They will either move up to get Calvin Johnson or Gaines Adams, or they will trade down one spot and take Amobi Okoye or Leon Hall. But I can’t base an entire draft on potential trades, so we’ll just continue where we left off. Johnson, the best receiver and perhaps the best overall player in the draft, would step into the big play void left two years ago by Randy Moss’ departure in Minnesota. At 6’4’’ and 230 lbs, Johnson has the size and speed (4.38) to be a consistent playmaker and provide some sizzle for what was the least sexy offense in the league in 2006.
Second Round Selection: (41) Charles Johnson, DE Georgia
Third Round Selection: (72) Tarell Brown, CB Texas
8. Atlanta Falcons– LaRon Landry, S LSU
Needs: S, LB, WR, DE
The secondary in Atlanta let the team down on several occasions last season; finishing 28th in pass defense and intercepting only 12 passes. Insert LaRon Landry. With the ability to run deep in coverage, ball hawk the football, or deliver a blow, Landry could be the best secondary player in the draft. He may give up a play now and then because of a tendency to always attack the football, but he more than makes up for his mistakes throughout the game. If Landry is gone at this point, the Falcons may need to look for an ILB if they don’t re-sign Edgerton Hartwell.
Second Round Selections: (39 from Houston) Sydney Rice, WR South Carolina
(44) Marshawn Lynch, RB Cal
Third Round Selection: (75) Brandon Siler, ILB Florida
9. Miami Dolphins– Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Needs: CB, WR, OL, DE
Hall is very talented but there really isn’t any one thing that he does exceptionally well. He moves well in space, has good ball skills, and is a fine tackler. He isn’t the greatest man-to-man cover guy in the world, but he is coach-able with sub 4.4 speed. Miami finished fifth against the pass in ’06, but Hall would be a definite upgrade in a secondary that lacks depth and playmaking ability on the corners.
Second Round Selections: (40) Doug Free, OT Northern Illinois
(60 from NE) Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE Hawaii
Third Round Selection: (71) David Clowney, WR Virginia Tech
10. Houston Texans– Levi Brown, OT Penn State
Needs: RB, OL, WR, DT, DE, DB, LB
At this point I’m convinced that the Texans should trade down and acquire as many picks as possible. (Especially after losing a second round pick in the Schaub deal.) They have needs at virtually every position. They did sign a tackle (Jordan Black, KC) in the off-season, so that could change their direction.
But finally, after passing on quality OT’s for the better part of their short existence, the Teaxans actually get this one right. Brown was one of the top OL prospects going into last year, and he never showed otherwise as the season progressed. He has been very consistent week to week with good feet, good balance, and a willingness to attack defenders. After overpaying for Ahman Green, Brown will be relied upon to clear room for the running game as well. All that being said, trading down is definitely the best option. But if they stay put, Brown is a nice consolation.
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (73) Ryan McBean, DT Oklahoma State
11. San Francisco 49ers– Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Needs: WR, DL, C
Okoye has been one of the bigger surprises this off-season. The Niners desperately need help at WR, but receivers can be had in later rounds, top end DT’s cannot. With a dominating performance during senior bowl week, and again at the combine, the 19-year-old (with four years of college experience) Okoye shows too much strength, quickness, and potential to pass on. With the additions of CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis, and LB Tully Bantha-Cain, look out for Mike Nolan’s D in ‘07.
Second Round Selection: (42) Craig Davis, WR LSU
Third Round Selection: (76) Ryan Kalil, C USC
(97 compensatory) Jay Moore, DE Nebraska
12. Buffalo Bills– Patrick Willis, ILB Ole Miss
Needs: RB, LB, CB
The Bills have a lot of work to do to replace the litany of players who have left during free agency, creating vacancies at RB, CB, G, OLB and ILB. Willis is the highest rated player available to fill one of these spots. Willis has done nothing but impress since the season ended with a stellar performance at the combine and an even better showing at Mississippi’s pro day. There really isn’t anything that he doesn’t do well. Willis was a constant performer at Ole Miss, registering 137 total tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery earning him first team All-American, first team All-SEC, SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors, and the Butkus Award in 2006. Willis is this year’s DeMeco Ryans. In short, he’s a do everything playmaker with great speed who likes to be around the football.
Second Round Selection: (43) Daymeion Hughes, CB Cal
Third Round Selection: (74) Zach DeOssie, OLB Brown
(92 from Baltimore) Chris Henry RB, Arizona
13. St Louis Rams– Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Needs: DL, OL, CB, LB
The Rams defense was one of the worst up front last season (31st ranked run defense).
Branch was long considered the top DL prospect in the draft, but he has dropped slightly as concerns have arisen about his motor and motivation. It won’t be likely, however, for him to slip past the Rams. St. Louis is in desperate need of a stopper up front. Branch is a classic two gap player, a space eater up front who will free up room for the LB’s to roam freely. Passing on Branch at the 13th spot would be a mistake for the Rams.
Second Round Selection: (52) Aaron Sears, OG Tennessee
Third Round Selection: (82) Kenny Scott, CB Georgia Tech
14. Carolina Panthers– Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
Needs: LB, WR, OL
With Dan Morgan’s constant uncertainty, the Panthers need to add depth at LB. Posluszny’s experience playing both inside and outside will prove valuable to the Panthers. There’s no doubting Posluszny’s leadership abilities, or his skill. As a two time All-American, he showed a never ending motor, excellent pursuit angles, skilled tackling, and great instincts. After returning from a blown out knee after his junior year, Posluszney returned with 116 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, and two forced fumbles, earning him first team All-American honors, an All-Big Ten first team selection, and the Bednarik Award as the nation's top defensive player.
Second Round Selection: (45) Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State
Third Round Selection: (83) Ryan Harris, OT Notre Dame
15. Pittsburgh Steelers– Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Needs: FS, DE, OLB
The Steeler defense began to suffer when Chris Hope left following their Super Bowl victory. But now, the thought of Nelson and Troy Polamalu patrolling the same backfield is enough to make fans salivate, and opposing offenses sweat. The word “Ballhawk” was created for players like Nelson. He is constantly on the attack, always around the football, and rarely gets beat down the field - Perfect for any scheme.
Second Round Selection: (46) Stewart Bradley, OLB Nebraska
Third Round Selection: (77) Ray McDonald, DE Florida
16. Green Bay Packers – Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Needs: WR, TE, RB, S
Taking a running back here would be a mistake, with guys like Brandon Jackson (Nebraska), Tony Hunt (Penn State), or Darius Walker (Notre Dame) likely to be available even in round three. The Packer’s lack of depth in the receiving core kept the offense in a virtual head lock for most of last season. Now that they know that QB Brett Favre will be returning for 2007, the passing game can get a real boost down the seams with the speedy, 6’5’’Olsen to complement pro bowler Donald Driver. Olsen would be reminiscent of a bigger, faster Mark Chmura during the early years of the Favre era in Green Bay.
Second Round Selection: (47) Brandon Jackson, RB Nebraska
Third Round Selection: (78) Josh Gattis, S Wake Forrest
17. Jacksonville Jaguars– Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio St.
Needs: WR, LB, S, QB
As unsettled as the Jags are at QB, their biggest question mark remains to be the receiving core. Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones have all shown signs of improvement, but adding a dependable pass catching threat that can stretch the field would really help to open up the Jaguar offense. Ginn’s top end speed and elusive running style allow him to stretch the field and make him dangerous in open space and as a return man.
Second Round Selection: (48) Brandon Meriweather, S Miami (Fl)
Third Round Selection: (79) Rufus Alexander, OLB Oklahoma
18. Cincinnati Bengals – Darrelle Rivas, CB Pitt
Needs: DT, OG, FS, OLB
The Bengal’s 31st ranked pass defense was a disappointment to say the least and must be improved. Rivas has been knocked as not having top end speed (although he did register a 4.39 at Pitt’s pro day), but he runs fluidly and reacts well to receivers in mid rout. He also has a large frame that creates match up problems for less physical receivers. His ability to play the ball in the air and his physical nature make him a favorite of head coach Marvin Lewis.
Second Round Selection: (49) Ben Grubbs, OG Auburn
Third Round Selection: Exercised in supplemental draft
19. Tennessee Titans – Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Needs: DE, WR, MLB, TE
At first glance you’d think that with all that the Titans have invested in Vince Young, they would have to surround him with talented receivers- of which there are plenty in the first round. But last year Tennessee ranked 30th in run defense, 27th against the pass, and 32nd -dead last – in total defense. Luckily for coach Jeff Fisher, this draft is deep enough at WR to wait until round two. Right now strengthening the defense is crucial.
No one opened more eyes or improved their position at the senior bowl more than Carriker, and he has carried that hype to the combine and through to the draft. His size (6’6’’, 292 lbs) and speed (4.85) are a freakish combination that allow for big plays (52 total tackles, 16 tackles for loss, seven sacks, one interception, and one blocked kick last season). Carriker is stout against the run, and aggressive towards the QB. Some have him type cast for a 3-4 front, but he will be a solid DE in any scheme.
Second Round Selection: (50) Jason Hill, WR Washington State
Third Round Selection: (80) Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
20. New York Giants – Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
Needs: OT, CB, DT, WR
Corner and Tackle are the primary concerns for New York. With a deep class of DB’s stretching into the second round, Staley is the choice here. Staley began his career at Central Michigan as a tight end, and has kept his quick feet as his frame has grown. He is still a bit raw, but he is quick, physically gifted and goes non-stop.
Second Round Selection: (51) Quinn Pitcock, DT Ohio State
Third Round Selection: (81) Fred Bennett, CB South Carolina
21. Denver Broncos – Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Needs: WR, SS, DL, LB
There’s been a lot of talk about the Broncos taking a DE with their first pick, but I don’t see how a team that produced 27 sacks from the DE position in 2006 would make that their top priority. As Jay Cutler is emerging, the receivers in Denver are in decline. Rod Smith is aging quickly, and there is little to compliment Javon Walker. Bowe is still learning the position, not having played organized football until his junior year of high school, but his production increased steadily over his four years at LSU. At under 4.5 in the 40, Bowe has fine speed for his size, and will make a big impact on the Denver offense.
Second Round Selection: (56) Tim Crowder, DE Texas
Third Round Selection: (70 from Wash.) Justin Durant, ILB Hampton
(86) Marshal Yanda, OL Iowa
22. Dallas Cowboys– Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee
Needs: WR, OL, OLB
Having addressed their concerns at safety via free agency, the Cowboys can turn to WR in round one. Meachem is a perfect fit for the Dallas offense. With Terrell Owens’ future uncertain and Terry Glen turning 33 this season, Meachem will quickly find time to develop a rapport with QB of the future Tony Romo. Running a 4.39 at 6’1’’ also makes him difficult to pass on.
Second Round Selection: (53) Quincy Black, OLB New Mexico
Third Round Selection: (87) Tim Duckworth, OG Auburn
23. Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Needs: OT, WR, CB, S
The offense is a mess in KC with the QB position up in the air and a dearth of receiving options. For years the Chiefs have needed a top WR and never drafted one in the first round. With Bowe and Meachem going right before, they will have to pass again. Houston’s strength (27 reps at the combine) makes him an attractive fit for Herm Edwards’ cover two scheme, and his incredible speed (4.32 in the 40) will make up for any mistakes. WR’s will come in round two.
Second Round Selection: (54) Paul Williams, WR Fresno State
Third Round Selection: (84) James Marten, OT Boston College
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle)– Michael Griffin, S Texas
Needs: FS, CB, DL, LB
Signing Tory James away from Cincinnati takes care of the CB spot for now, and allows the Pat’s to look at adding a top tier safety. Griffin has been impressing scouts in individual workouts, some even saying he could go ahead of Florida’s Reggie Nelson. Griffin is more of a free safety, but is versatile enough to play the strong side. He runs in the low 4.4’s, is a devastating tackler (nine forced fumbles at Texas) and brings a physical presence to the secondary. A constant playmaker for the Longhorns, Griffin finished his senior season with 126 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, 10 pass-breakups, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, two blocked kicks, and four interceptions while also being named a second team All-American and a first team All-Big 12 performer.
Seattle Seahawks: Second round selection: (55) Josh Beekman, OG Boston College
Third Round Selection: (85) Kareem Brown, DT Miami (Fl)
25. New York Jets – Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Needs: CB, TE, DL
Eric Mangini’s rebuilding process will take another step with Ross stepping into the cornerback spot. The Jim Thorpe award winner, Ross became the big play specialist (alongside his teammate Griffin) for the Longhorn defense in his senior year. He is tall and shows good technique before and after the ball is in the air, and comes up strong in run support.
Second Round Selections: (59) Brandon Mebane, DT California
(63 from Chicago) Zach Miller, TE Arizona State
Third Round Selection: (89) Andy Alleman, OG Akron
26. Philadelphia Eagles – Tank Tyler, DT NC State
Needs: SS, MLB, DE, WR
With the Takeo Spikes manning the OLB spot and the top safties off the board, the Eagles will continue doing what has brought them so much success over the Andy Reid era- adding depth along the interior line. Tyler was a bit of a surprise this season. As the only returning starter on a defensive line that lost three starters to last year’s first round. Tyler’s play in 2007 actually elevated when he became the main focus of opposing offenses. His straight ahead quickness makes him a perfect fit to play the three technique in Jim Johnson’s aggressive 4-3 defense in Philly.
Second Round Selection: (57) Eric Weddle, DB Utah
Third Round Selection: (90) John Beck, QB BYU
27. New Orleans Saints – Marcus McCauly, CB Fresno State
Needs: CB, SS, DE, WR
The saints actually have few pressing needs, a testament to the great job done by Sean Payton to overhaul the roster in his rookie year, but they do need to improve their overall depth on defense, starting in the secondary. McCauly is a little raw in terms of technique, but he gas great size (6’1’’) and speed (4.39) that show a great deal of potential. Only two teams had fewer interceptions last year than the Saints, and McCauly should help provide a little more play making ability in the secondary.
Second Round Selection: (58) Buster Davis, ILB Florida State
Third Round Selection: (88) Quentin Moses, DE Georgia
28. New England Patriots – Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue
Needs: FS, CB, DL, LB
Adding Tory James via free agency and picking Griffin earlier should be enough to fill the needs in the secondary for now. Spencer will provide versatility with his ability to help on the defensive line (with his large 260 lb frame, he led the nation with 26.5 tackles for loss last season) as well as some spot work at outside linebacker (with his 4.7 speed and 10.5 sacks). Spencer has shown improvement over the past couple of years at Purdue, developing into a very technically sound, explosive player
Second Round Selection: Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (91) H.B. Blades, ILB Pit
29. Baltimore Ravens – Tony Ugoh, OT Arkansas
Needs: OT, OLB, DL, WR
After bringing in a more explosive Willis McGahee to run the football and losing starting right tackle Tony Pashos (a big hit for the Ravens. He was a their best run blocker), this makes a lot of sense. Ugoh can eventually move to the left side in a couple of years when John Ogden retires, but for now he will be a road grading beast on the right side. Ugoh still has some technique problems, but his strength and quickness off the ball are outstanding. He should fit in well in Baltimore.
Second Round Selection: (61) Victor Abiamiri, DE Notre Dame
Third Round Selection: None
30. San Diego Chargers – Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Needs: WR, SS, CB, ILB
At 6’5’’, Jarrett has great size and is able to go over the middle and make the tough catches in traffic. He may be labeled a possession receiver due to a lack of top end speed, but great hands and a large frame make him an attractive addition to this undermanned receiving core. The Chargers have guys who can stretch the field (Vincent Jackson) and run the seams (Antonio Gates). Adding Jarrett will put much more pressure on opposing secondaries that are used to being able to load the box against LaDainian Tomlinson.
Second Round Selection: (62) Tanard Jackson, DB Syracuse
Third Round Selection: (93) Rory Johnson ILB Mississippi
(96 compensatory) Michael Bush, RB Louisville
31. Chicago Bears – Justin Harrel, DT Tennessee
Needs: DT, OT, WR, OLB, RB
The Bears were exposed as a different team when Tommy Harris went down last season. That lack of depth along the defensive line (which will be amplified if Tank Johnson is suspended) hurt the NFC champs and must be a major point of concern for the upcoming season. Harrel showed a lot of toughness last season trying to play through a ruptured biceps tendon, but was unable to finish his senior season. However, he was able to show that he can fill holes up front with exceptional quickness, and his long arms help him to disrupt the QB while rushing the passer. Harrel is very quick for his size and provides strength up the middle, something the Bears don’t have enough of.
Second Round Selection: (37 from Wash. through NYJ) John Beason, OLB Miami (FL)
Third Round Selection: (94) Aundrae Allison, WR East Carolina
32. Indianapolis Colts –Lawrence Timmons, OLB Florida St.
Needs: OLB, CB, WR, RB
The Colts struggle to replace Gary Brackett’s absence last season will become an even greater problem now that their other fine OLB, Cato June, has gone to Tampa. Once thought to be the top OLB prospect in the draft, Timmons has disappointed somewhat with his combine and workout performances. His slower than expected 40 times (in the 4.7’s at the combine, a more respectable 4.6+ at Florida State’s pro day) and lack of experience will cause him to drop, but Timmons is still full of potential and worth a first round pick for the Colts. Despite his youth, Tony Dungy will need Timmons to step in and start right away. Luckily, his talents are exactly what they need on Indy’s D. Timmons can be a bit slow in recognition, but he moves sideline to sideline, is an excellent tackler, and can get back in coverage. If Timmons goes earlier, the Colts would likely turn to John Beason, OLB Miami (FL).
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (95) David Irons, CB Auburn
(98 compensatory) Antonio Pittman, RB Ohio State
This is an assessment of the most likely ways for teams to improve in this year’s draft. It is not a prediction of what will happen, but rather a representation of whom I believe each team should select for the first 100 picks of the draft. It does not take into account any pre-draft signings or draft day trades. This may be continuously updated until draft day.
1. Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Needs: QB, OL, WR
Russell’s live arm should be a perfect fit for Lane Kiffin’s verticle offense (assuming any of his receivers ever show up), but I swear I heard that with both Kerry Collins and Aaron Brooks. The difference here is that not only were the previous QB’s in Oakland at the end of their careers, but they were also devoid of any semblance of athletic ability inside or outside the pocket. Russell may not scramble like Vince Young, but he has great feet and a good feel for the rush that is sure to come early and often in the Raider offense. There are several positions of need in Oakland, but luckily the Raiders posses five of the first 100 picks in this draft.
Second Round Selection: (33) Steve Smith, WR USC
Third Round Selection: (65) Manuel Ramirez, OG Texas Tech
(99 compensatory) Dan Bazuin, DE Central Michigan
Fourth Round Selection: (100) Chase Johnson, OT Wyoming (Oak)
2. Detroit Lions – Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
Needs: QB, DB, DE
Quinn is the most talented QB in the draft and the Lions are dangerously unstable at the position. With John Kitna’s 35th birthday coming in September, this is the perfect time to bring in a young QB for the future and let him sit for a year before handing him the reigns (a la Carson Palmer). The only question will be if Quinn has the arm it takes to succeed in Mike Martz’s vertical offense.
Second Round Selection: (34) Eric Wright, CB UNLV
Third Round Selection: (66) LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB Michigan
3. Cleveland Browns – Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Needs: RB, DE, CB
This is the pick for Cleveland weather Quinn goes second or not. Bringing in Jamal Lewis with a one year deal isn’t enough to make the Browns feel comfortable at the RB position. Concerns about durability shouldn’t be too big of an issue, as none of AD’s college injuries were the kind that linger or return with regular contact. This is a 20 carry per night workhorse that will keep the Browns in games for years to come.
Second Round Selection: (36) Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue
Third Round Selection: (67) Josh Wilson, CB Maryland
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Thomas, T Wisconsin
Needs: OL, S, TE
The most glaring need of any team in football is Tampa’s O-Line, and here comes the best player in the draft to fill it. Thomas is a road grader, a brick wall in the passing game, and a punishing blocker from the point of attack to the whistle. The only one happier than Gruden at this selection is Cadillac Williams.
Second Round Selection: (35) Turk McBride, DT Tennessee
(64 from Indianapolis) John Wendling, S Wyoming
Third Round Selection: (68) Dallas Baker (The Touchdown Maker), WR Florida
5. Arizona Cardinals – Gains Adams, DE Clemson
Needs: OL, DL, LB, FS
As a Card’s fan I can’t decide if I like Adams better or LaRon Landry, but I think they’re more likely to go DL first. Few players find themselves around the football as much as Adams. At 6’5’’ and 260 lbs, he is as quick an end as you’ll see. Adams has outstanding hands (an underrated quality for a DE) and feet, enabling him to stand up well against the run and beat tackles to the spot regularly. He had to learn a lot about the game in college, having played eight-man football in high school, but has developed into one of the best players in the country. As evidenced by his career at Clemson, dude makes plays- 62 total tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, 12 passes defensed, two forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries as a senior.
Second Round Selection: (38) Justin Blalock, OT Texas
Third Round Selection: (69) David Harris, ILB Michigan
6. Washington Redskins – Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
Needs: DE, DT, CB
The Redskins will be hoping to hit big with this pick, partly because it’s their only one on the first day. Washington finished 27th against the run in ’06, a death nell in the NFC East, and finished with a league low 19 sacks. The Skins’ lack of picks will make moving this pick the top priority, (the Skins lack the necessary picks to move up, and will only be able to move down if another team is desperate for a player that slips past the top five, like Laron Landry, for example) but strengthening the D Line with this pick will likely be the best option. Anderson will enable them to get more out of their pass rush without becoming vulnerable in the run game. He brings excellent size and quickness as a rusher (13.5 sacks last year at Arkansas) and a strong presence up front (19.5 TFL).
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: None
7. Minnesota Vikings - Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Needs: WR, QB, DE, CB
It isn’t realistic to think that Johnson will fall to seven come draft day, but the six teams above have higher needs than WR. It’s more likely that someone will trade up to get him, but regardless of the order, I think the top ten picks will consist of the same players. That being said, I think there’s a 90% chance the Vikings will trade this pick. They will either move up to get Calvin Johnson or Gaines Adams, or they will trade down one spot and take Amobi Okoye or Leon Hall. But I can’t base an entire draft on potential trades, so we’ll just continue where we left off. Johnson, the best receiver and perhaps the best overall player in the draft, would step into the big play void left two years ago by Randy Moss’ departure in Minnesota. At 6’4’’ and 230 lbs, Johnson has the size and speed (4.38) to be a consistent playmaker and provide some sizzle for what was the least sexy offense in the league in 2006.
Second Round Selection: (41) Charles Johnson, DE Georgia
Third Round Selection: (72) Tarell Brown, CB Texas
8. Atlanta Falcons– LaRon Landry, S LSU
Needs: S, LB, WR, DE
The secondary in Atlanta let the team down on several occasions last season; finishing 28th in pass defense and intercepting only 12 passes. Insert LaRon Landry. With the ability to run deep in coverage, ball hawk the football, or deliver a blow, Landry could be the best secondary player in the draft. He may give up a play now and then because of a tendency to always attack the football, but he more than makes up for his mistakes throughout the game. If Landry is gone at this point, the Falcons may need to look for an ILB if they don’t re-sign Edgerton Hartwell.
Second Round Selections: (39 from Houston) Sydney Rice, WR South Carolina
(44) Marshawn Lynch, RB Cal
Third Round Selection: (75) Brandon Siler, ILB Florida
9. Miami Dolphins– Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Needs: CB, WR, OL, DE
Hall is very talented but there really isn’t any one thing that he does exceptionally well. He moves well in space, has good ball skills, and is a fine tackler. He isn’t the greatest man-to-man cover guy in the world, but he is coach-able with sub 4.4 speed. Miami finished fifth against the pass in ’06, but Hall would be a definite upgrade in a secondary that lacks depth and playmaking ability on the corners.
Second Round Selections: (40) Doug Free, OT Northern Illinois
(60 from NE) Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE Hawaii
Third Round Selection: (71) David Clowney, WR Virginia Tech
10. Houston Texans– Levi Brown, OT Penn State
Needs: RB, OL, WR, DT, DE, DB, LB
At this point I’m convinced that the Texans should trade down and acquire as many picks as possible. (Especially after losing a second round pick in the Schaub deal.) They have needs at virtually every position. They did sign a tackle (Jordan Black, KC) in the off-season, so that could change their direction.
But finally, after passing on quality OT’s for the better part of their short existence, the Teaxans actually get this one right. Brown was one of the top OL prospects going into last year, and he never showed otherwise as the season progressed. He has been very consistent week to week with good feet, good balance, and a willingness to attack defenders. After overpaying for Ahman Green, Brown will be relied upon to clear room for the running game as well. All that being said, trading down is definitely the best option. But if they stay put, Brown is a nice consolation.
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (73) Ryan McBean, DT Oklahoma State
11. San Francisco 49ers– Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Needs: WR, DL, C
Okoye has been one of the bigger surprises this off-season. The Niners desperately need help at WR, but receivers can be had in later rounds, top end DT’s cannot. With a dominating performance during senior bowl week, and again at the combine, the 19-year-old (with four years of college experience) Okoye shows too much strength, quickness, and potential to pass on. With the additions of CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis, and LB Tully Bantha-Cain, look out for Mike Nolan’s D in ‘07.
Second Round Selection: (42) Craig Davis, WR LSU
Third Round Selection: (76) Ryan Kalil, C USC
(97 compensatory) Jay Moore, DE Nebraska
12. Buffalo Bills– Patrick Willis, ILB Ole Miss
Needs: RB, LB, CB
The Bills have a lot of work to do to replace the litany of players who have left during free agency, creating vacancies at RB, CB, G, OLB and ILB. Willis is the highest rated player available to fill one of these spots. Willis has done nothing but impress since the season ended with a stellar performance at the combine and an even better showing at Mississippi’s pro day. There really isn’t anything that he doesn’t do well. Willis was a constant performer at Ole Miss, registering 137 total tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery earning him first team All-American, first team All-SEC, SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors, and the Butkus Award in 2006. Willis is this year’s DeMeco Ryans. In short, he’s a do everything playmaker with great speed who likes to be around the football.
Second Round Selection: (43) Daymeion Hughes, CB Cal
Third Round Selection: (74) Zach DeOssie, OLB Brown
(92 from Baltimore) Chris Henry RB, Arizona
13. St Louis Rams– Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Needs: DL, OL, CB, LB
The Rams defense was one of the worst up front last season (31st ranked run defense).
Branch was long considered the top DL prospect in the draft, but he has dropped slightly as concerns have arisen about his motor and motivation. It won’t be likely, however, for him to slip past the Rams. St. Louis is in desperate need of a stopper up front. Branch is a classic two gap player, a space eater up front who will free up room for the LB’s to roam freely. Passing on Branch at the 13th spot would be a mistake for the Rams.
Second Round Selection: (52) Aaron Sears, OG Tennessee
Third Round Selection: (82) Kenny Scott, CB Georgia Tech
14. Carolina Panthers– Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
Needs: LB, WR, OL
With Dan Morgan’s constant uncertainty, the Panthers need to add depth at LB. Posluszny’s experience playing both inside and outside will prove valuable to the Panthers. There’s no doubting Posluszny’s leadership abilities, or his skill. As a two time All-American, he showed a never ending motor, excellent pursuit angles, skilled tackling, and great instincts. After returning from a blown out knee after his junior year, Posluszney returned with 116 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, and two forced fumbles, earning him first team All-American honors, an All-Big Ten first team selection, and the Bednarik Award as the nation's top defensive player.
Second Round Selection: (45) Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State
Third Round Selection: (83) Ryan Harris, OT Notre Dame
15. Pittsburgh Steelers– Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Needs: FS, DE, OLB
The Steeler defense began to suffer when Chris Hope left following their Super Bowl victory. But now, the thought of Nelson and Troy Polamalu patrolling the same backfield is enough to make fans salivate, and opposing offenses sweat. The word “Ballhawk” was created for players like Nelson. He is constantly on the attack, always around the football, and rarely gets beat down the field - Perfect for any scheme.
Second Round Selection: (46) Stewart Bradley, OLB Nebraska
Third Round Selection: (77) Ray McDonald, DE Florida
16. Green Bay Packers – Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Needs: WR, TE, RB, S
Taking a running back here would be a mistake, with guys like Brandon Jackson (Nebraska), Tony Hunt (Penn State), or Darius Walker (Notre Dame) likely to be available even in round three. The Packer’s lack of depth in the receiving core kept the offense in a virtual head lock for most of last season. Now that they know that QB Brett Favre will be returning for 2007, the passing game can get a real boost down the seams with the speedy, 6’5’’Olsen to complement pro bowler Donald Driver. Olsen would be reminiscent of a bigger, faster Mark Chmura during the early years of the Favre era in Green Bay.
Second Round Selection: (47) Brandon Jackson, RB Nebraska
Third Round Selection: (78) Josh Gattis, S Wake Forrest
17. Jacksonville Jaguars– Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio St.
Needs: WR, LB, S, QB
As unsettled as the Jags are at QB, their biggest question mark remains to be the receiving core. Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Matt Jones have all shown signs of improvement, but adding a dependable pass catching threat that can stretch the field would really help to open up the Jaguar offense. Ginn’s top end speed and elusive running style allow him to stretch the field and make him dangerous in open space and as a return man.
Second Round Selection: (48) Brandon Meriweather, S Miami (Fl)
Third Round Selection: (79) Rufus Alexander, OLB Oklahoma
18. Cincinnati Bengals – Darrelle Rivas, CB Pitt
Needs: DT, OG, FS, OLB
The Bengal’s 31st ranked pass defense was a disappointment to say the least and must be improved. Rivas has been knocked as not having top end speed (although he did register a 4.39 at Pitt’s pro day), but he runs fluidly and reacts well to receivers in mid rout. He also has a large frame that creates match up problems for less physical receivers. His ability to play the ball in the air and his physical nature make him a favorite of head coach Marvin Lewis.
Second Round Selection: (49) Ben Grubbs, OG Auburn
Third Round Selection: Exercised in supplemental draft
19. Tennessee Titans – Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Needs: DE, WR, MLB, TE
At first glance you’d think that with all that the Titans have invested in Vince Young, they would have to surround him with talented receivers- of which there are plenty in the first round. But last year Tennessee ranked 30th in run defense, 27th against the pass, and 32nd -dead last – in total defense. Luckily for coach Jeff Fisher, this draft is deep enough at WR to wait until round two. Right now strengthening the defense is crucial.
No one opened more eyes or improved their position at the senior bowl more than Carriker, and he has carried that hype to the combine and through to the draft. His size (6’6’’, 292 lbs) and speed (4.85) are a freakish combination that allow for big plays (52 total tackles, 16 tackles for loss, seven sacks, one interception, and one blocked kick last season). Carriker is stout against the run, and aggressive towards the QB. Some have him type cast for a 3-4 front, but he will be a solid DE in any scheme.
Second Round Selection: (50) Jason Hill, WR Washington State
Third Round Selection: (80) Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
20. New York Giants – Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
Needs: OT, CB, DT, WR
Corner and Tackle are the primary concerns for New York. With a deep class of DB’s stretching into the second round, Staley is the choice here. Staley began his career at Central Michigan as a tight end, and has kept his quick feet as his frame has grown. He is still a bit raw, but he is quick, physically gifted and goes non-stop.
Second Round Selection: (51) Quinn Pitcock, DT Ohio State
Third Round Selection: (81) Fred Bennett, CB South Carolina
21. Denver Broncos – Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Needs: WR, SS, DL, LB
There’s been a lot of talk about the Broncos taking a DE with their first pick, but I don’t see how a team that produced 27 sacks from the DE position in 2006 would make that their top priority. As Jay Cutler is emerging, the receivers in Denver are in decline. Rod Smith is aging quickly, and there is little to compliment Javon Walker. Bowe is still learning the position, not having played organized football until his junior year of high school, but his production increased steadily over his four years at LSU. At under 4.5 in the 40, Bowe has fine speed for his size, and will make a big impact on the Denver offense.
Second Round Selection: (56) Tim Crowder, DE Texas
Third Round Selection: (70 from Wash.) Justin Durant, ILB Hampton
(86) Marshal Yanda, OL Iowa
22. Dallas Cowboys– Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee
Needs: WR, OL, OLB
Having addressed their concerns at safety via free agency, the Cowboys can turn to WR in round one. Meachem is a perfect fit for the Dallas offense. With Terrell Owens’ future uncertain and Terry Glen turning 33 this season, Meachem will quickly find time to develop a rapport with QB of the future Tony Romo. Running a 4.39 at 6’1’’ also makes him difficult to pass on.
Second Round Selection: (53) Quincy Black, OLB New Mexico
Third Round Selection: (87) Tim Duckworth, OG Auburn
23. Kansas City Chiefs – Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Needs: OT, WR, CB, S
The offense is a mess in KC with the QB position up in the air and a dearth of receiving options. For years the Chiefs have needed a top WR and never drafted one in the first round. With Bowe and Meachem going right before, they will have to pass again. Houston’s strength (27 reps at the combine) makes him an attractive fit for Herm Edwards’ cover two scheme, and his incredible speed (4.32 in the 40) will make up for any mistakes. WR’s will come in round two.
Second Round Selection: (54) Paul Williams, WR Fresno State
Third Round Selection: (84) James Marten, OT Boston College
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle)– Michael Griffin, S Texas
Needs: FS, CB, DL, LB
Signing Tory James away from Cincinnati takes care of the CB spot for now, and allows the Pat’s to look at adding a top tier safety. Griffin has been impressing scouts in individual workouts, some even saying he could go ahead of Florida’s Reggie Nelson. Griffin is more of a free safety, but is versatile enough to play the strong side. He runs in the low 4.4’s, is a devastating tackler (nine forced fumbles at Texas) and brings a physical presence to the secondary. A constant playmaker for the Longhorns, Griffin finished his senior season with 126 total tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, 10 pass-breakups, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, two blocked kicks, and four interceptions while also being named a second team All-American and a first team All-Big 12 performer.
Seattle Seahawks: Second round selection: (55) Josh Beekman, OG Boston College
Third Round Selection: (85) Kareem Brown, DT Miami (Fl)
25. New York Jets – Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Needs: CB, TE, DL
Eric Mangini’s rebuilding process will take another step with Ross stepping into the cornerback spot. The Jim Thorpe award winner, Ross became the big play specialist (alongside his teammate Griffin) for the Longhorn defense in his senior year. He is tall and shows good technique before and after the ball is in the air, and comes up strong in run support.
Second Round Selections: (59) Brandon Mebane, DT California
(63 from Chicago) Zach Miller, TE Arizona State
Third Round Selection: (89) Andy Alleman, OG Akron
26. Philadelphia Eagles – Tank Tyler, DT NC State
Needs: SS, MLB, DE, WR
With the Takeo Spikes manning the OLB spot and the top safties off the board, the Eagles will continue doing what has brought them so much success over the Andy Reid era- adding depth along the interior line. Tyler was a bit of a surprise this season. As the only returning starter on a defensive line that lost three starters to last year’s first round. Tyler’s play in 2007 actually elevated when he became the main focus of opposing offenses. His straight ahead quickness makes him a perfect fit to play the three technique in Jim Johnson’s aggressive 4-3 defense in Philly.
Second Round Selection: (57) Eric Weddle, DB Utah
Third Round Selection: (90) John Beck, QB BYU
27. New Orleans Saints – Marcus McCauly, CB Fresno State
Needs: CB, SS, DE, WR
The saints actually have few pressing needs, a testament to the great job done by Sean Payton to overhaul the roster in his rookie year, but they do need to improve their overall depth on defense, starting in the secondary. McCauly is a little raw in terms of technique, but he gas great size (6’1’’) and speed (4.39) that show a great deal of potential. Only two teams had fewer interceptions last year than the Saints, and McCauly should help provide a little more play making ability in the secondary.
Second Round Selection: (58) Buster Davis, ILB Florida State
Third Round Selection: (88) Quentin Moses, DE Georgia
28. New England Patriots – Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue
Needs: FS, CB, DL, LB
Adding Tory James via free agency and picking Griffin earlier should be enough to fill the needs in the secondary for now. Spencer will provide versatility with his ability to help on the defensive line (with his large 260 lb frame, he led the nation with 26.5 tackles for loss last season) as well as some spot work at outside linebacker (with his 4.7 speed and 10.5 sacks). Spencer has shown improvement over the past couple of years at Purdue, developing into a very technically sound, explosive player
Second Round Selection: Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (91) H.B. Blades, ILB Pit
29. Baltimore Ravens – Tony Ugoh, OT Arkansas
Needs: OT, OLB, DL, WR
After bringing in a more explosive Willis McGahee to run the football and losing starting right tackle Tony Pashos (a big hit for the Ravens. He was a their best run blocker), this makes a lot of sense. Ugoh can eventually move to the left side in a couple of years when John Ogden retires, but for now he will be a road grading beast on the right side. Ugoh still has some technique problems, but his strength and quickness off the ball are outstanding. He should fit in well in Baltimore.
Second Round Selection: (61) Victor Abiamiri, DE Notre Dame
Third Round Selection: None
30. San Diego Chargers – Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Needs: WR, SS, CB, ILB
At 6’5’’, Jarrett has great size and is able to go over the middle and make the tough catches in traffic. He may be labeled a possession receiver due to a lack of top end speed, but great hands and a large frame make him an attractive addition to this undermanned receiving core. The Chargers have guys who can stretch the field (Vincent Jackson) and run the seams (Antonio Gates). Adding Jarrett will put much more pressure on opposing secondaries that are used to being able to load the box against LaDainian Tomlinson.
Second Round Selection: (62) Tanard Jackson, DB Syracuse
Third Round Selection: (93) Rory Johnson ILB Mississippi
(96 compensatory) Michael Bush, RB Louisville
31. Chicago Bears – Justin Harrel, DT Tennessee
Needs: DT, OT, WR, OLB, RB
The Bears were exposed as a different team when Tommy Harris went down last season. That lack of depth along the defensive line (which will be amplified if Tank Johnson is suspended) hurt the NFC champs and must be a major point of concern for the upcoming season. Harrel showed a lot of toughness last season trying to play through a ruptured biceps tendon, but was unable to finish his senior season. However, he was able to show that he can fill holes up front with exceptional quickness, and his long arms help him to disrupt the QB while rushing the passer. Harrel is very quick for his size and provides strength up the middle, something the Bears don’t have enough of.
Second Round Selection: (37 from Wash. through NYJ) John Beason, OLB Miami (FL)
Third Round Selection: (94) Aundrae Allison, WR East Carolina
32. Indianapolis Colts –Lawrence Timmons, OLB Florida St.
Needs: OLB, CB, WR, RB
The Colts struggle to replace Gary Brackett’s absence last season will become an even greater problem now that their other fine OLB, Cato June, has gone to Tampa. Once thought to be the top OLB prospect in the draft, Timmons has disappointed somewhat with his combine and workout performances. His slower than expected 40 times (in the 4.7’s at the combine, a more respectable 4.6+ at Florida State’s pro day) and lack of experience will cause him to drop, but Timmons is still full of potential and worth a first round pick for the Colts. Despite his youth, Tony Dungy will need Timmons to step in and start right away. Luckily, his talents are exactly what they need on Indy’s D. Timmons can be a bit slow in recognition, but he moves sideline to sideline, is an excellent tackler, and can get back in coverage. If Timmons goes earlier, the Colts would likely turn to John Beason, OLB Miami (FL).
Second Round Selection: None
Third Round Selection: (95) David Irons, CB Auburn
(98 compensatory) Antonio Pittman, RB Ohio State
Monday, March 12, 2007
Tourney Time!
Now that the NCAA brackets have been announced, I’ve got mine filled out and I can’t wait to get started. While penciling in my picks, I got a little prematurely excited about some potential match-ups in later rounds. These are a few potential match-ups that get me psyched for the second round and beyond in each region:
South Region:
Second Round
Tennessee (5) v. Virginia (4)
Chris Lofton and Sean Singletary are two of the most fun guards to watch in the country. There is only one other player in the country I would rather have taking a last second shot for me other than these two. (See Regional match-up) Both shoot better than .400 from three-point range and have hit their share of game winners. Virginia tied for first in the ACC and The Vols finished second in the SEC East to Florida. I give Tennessee a slight edge inside, even though they are a little undersized, because of the emergence of SEC All-Freshman Team center Wayne Chism.
Regional:
Texas A&M (3) v. Memphis (2)
Aggie guard Acie Law IV is probably my favorite player in the country. If I could pick one guy in the country to take a game winning shot, it would be Law, and I wouldn’t think about it for more than a second. Memphis hasn’t played a lot of good teams this year, but they do win games by an average of almost 17 points, and they play a stifling, harassing style of defense. The tigers have virtually no inside presence other than 6-9 Jr. forward Joey Dorsey (9.6 rpg). He and Sr. guard Jeremy Hunt lead a team of freshmen and sophomores. Senior center Antanas Kavaliauskus can step outside for the Aggies and draw attention away from the basket. I like A&M all the way to the Final Four, so I’ll take them over Memphis.
East Region:
Second Round
Boston College (7) v. Georgetown (2)
BC is a bit of an enigma to me. They have the best player in the ACC in Jared Dudley, and an explosive guard in Tyrese Rice, but they seem to give up at times against good teams. The reason I list this as a game that intrigues me is because I’m interested to see how well BC’s tournament tested seniors can lead them through one last post season. Running into Georgetown will be the ultimate test. Roy Hibbert is as dominant a center as there is in college basketball right now, and forward Jeff Green has been one of the better forwards in the country this year. (Green-Dudley would be one of the better front court match-ups of the tourney.) If Rice can push the tempo for the Eagles and prevent Georgetown from setting up their offense and dragging down the pace of the game, they could have a shot to upset the Hoyas. I’m not sure that’s going to happen though; I like the Georgetown to advance.
Second Round
Oral Roberts (14) v. Vanderbilt (8)
There is always a low seed that makes it to the sweet 16, this year, I think it’s Oral Roberts. Vanderbilt has shown that they have only one thing in mind when they take the floor – shoot it deep, and shoot it often. (Okay, that’s two things, but you get my point). If Vandy gets hot, they can beat good teams, as evidenced by wins against Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida. But if they don’t, they can also lose to bad teams (like Furman and Appalachian State.) Oral Roberts made a lot of noise earlier in the year by beating Kansas, and later Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles are led by Sr. forward Caleb Green, (the three time conference POY) and Sr. guard Ken “King” Tutt. These teams are similar in that they both play about nine guys regularly and are heavy laden with seniors and juniors. Only OR's shooting guard Marchello Vealy (a soph. who dropped seven three’s on the Jayhawks) is a younger starter. Green and shot blocking center Shawn King give Oral Roberts an inside presence that Vandy can’t match. If the three’s aren’t falling fast and furious for Vanderbilt, make the Golden Eagles this year’s Cinderella. The only thing crazier than this - Oral Roberts actualy matches up well with Georgetown if they meet in the Sweet 16.
Regional:
Texas (4) v. North Carolina (1)
Kevin Durant is hands down the best player in the country. I fought this for most of the season, ‘cause I don’t like freshmen, but it’s true. The longhorns only have two losses this season where their opponent scored fewer than 87 points, so they can definitely put the ball in the basket. This game will set the tournament record for most starting freshmen and sophomores (only Sr. forward Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina avoids that distinction), but don’t expect that to affect the level of play. The Tar Heels may be the only team in the country deep enough to continually run guys at Durant for 40 minutes. That will be important because the only way to beat Texas is to make Durant take a ton of shots at a low percentage. Even then, you’ve got to worry about guards D.J. Augustin (best freshman guard in the country) and A.J. Abrams knocking down shots from the perimeter. As deep as the Heels are, they will need center Tyler Hansbrough to be aggressive inside and play the role that Jokim Noah did last year for Florida if they want to advance to the Final Four. I’m picking the Tar Heels here for two reasons, one, I think that Reyshawn Terry will be the toughest defender that Durant has seen all year. And two, the Heels can score 90 on Texas, and that will be enough to beat them.
Midwest Region:
Second Round
Notre Dame (6) v. Oregon (3)
Oregon is a little over rated and Notre Dame is a little under rated, so this should be a fairly even match up. The center of attraction here is Duck’s guard Aaron Brooks. Brooks should have been the PAC-10 player of the year (UCLA’s Aaron Afflalo won it) and he is a real showman when it comes to theatrics on the basketball court. He and fellow backcourt mate Tajuan Porter can get hot from three point range and put teams under quickly. That being said, Oregon relies to heavily on Brooks to win games. Notre Dame is led by a pair of senior guards, Collin Falls and Russell Carter, who can match Oregon’s prowess at shooting from distance. Freshman forward Luke Harangody has become a vital inside presence for the Irish over the second half of the season. This will be a great match up of senior guards in Brooks and Falls. If Notre Dame can control the post (I think they will) it will open things up for their shooters. Go Irish.
Regional
Butler (5) v. Florida (1)
Florida reminds me too much of Connecticut last year. They are immensely talented, a little lazy mentally, and like to wait around until the second half before turning it on. That usually leads to upsets in the tournament. Butler certainly has the resume of a giant killer. They began the year with winning 12 of their first 13 games, including at Notre Dame, Indiana, at Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Purdue. With their age and tournament experience, the Gators certainly won’t awe them, and they’ll believe they can win. Florida guard Tuarean Green will need to keep up the tempo against the Bulldogs, and the rest of the Gators will have to keep up. As experienced as Florida is, they only go about seven deep, with all five starters averaging more than 25 min per game. If they get tired from pushing the tempo, or get into foul trouble, look out. I like Butler in the biggest bracket buster upset of the tourney. Well, maybe the second biggest…
West Region:
Second Round
Gonzaga (10) v. UCLA (2)
What do we know about the tournament? It’s about guard play, coaching, and style. UCLA has good guards. Afflalo (16.7 ppg) is the PAC-10 POY, and Darren Collison (12.6 ppg) was voted first team All-Conference. Ben Howland is one of the best defensive coaches in the country (UCLA allows only 60.6 points per game), mainly because of the swarming defense of their great backcourt. But offensively, the Bruins have a negative turnover margin (-0.8) and have an assist to turn over ratio of only 1.21:1. Most of Afflalo’s points come off of turnovers and fast breaks. The Bruins can be beaten if their guards are forced to produce in the half court and consistently make jump shots.
Gonzaga’s guards Derek Raivio (18.2 ppg) and Jeremy Pargo (12.2 ppg), probably my second favorite player in the country, score more, and are deeper. Soph. guard Micha Downs missed the first half of the season for the Bulldogs, but came on to be a big factor for the Zag’s in the second half. They have only four losses since Downs’ return to the lineup. Mark Few is making his ninth consecutive trip to the tournament this year after having dealt with the loss of their best player in mid season. They have a turnover margin of +1.0, and score over 70 ppg. The Zag’s also have a committee of post players in Sean Mallon, David Pendergraft and Abdullahi Kusso who combine for 20 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. UCLA’s Josh Shipp and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute counter with a strong inside presence for the Bruins. The big contrast here is style of play. UCLA likes to grind you down and get after it defensively, whereas Gonzaga is more up-tempo. The team that hits from the outside and can control the pace of the game will have the big advantage. My pick? Gonzaga. It’s been too long since they’ve surprised anyone in the tourney.
Regional
Pitt (3) v. UCLA (2)
I know I just picked UCLA to lose before this mach-up, but it’s the only interesting potential regional game in the West (my apologies to Southern Illinois). This was the one that made everyone’s eyebrows rise the second the brackets were announced. The idea of Ben Howland facing his former team coached by his protégé Jamie Dixon is what tournament games are all about. These two play identical styles (of course) and dominate their own ends of the country. Seven foot Sr. center Aaron Gray has led Pitt all season. He is a dominant force inside, especially in slow paced, drag out games like this one would be. In this game the Bruins would be dependant on their guards, and against Pitt they would have a decided advantage. Panther’s guards Levance Fields and Antonio Graves are good, but undersized. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one finished with a final score in the 60’s. If these teams do meet, I would take UCLA. Dixon has done a great job at Pitt, but he’s not Ben Howland quite yet.
South Region:
Second Round
Tennessee (5) v. Virginia (4)
Chris Lofton and Sean Singletary are two of the most fun guards to watch in the country. There is only one other player in the country I would rather have taking a last second shot for me other than these two. (See Regional match-up) Both shoot better than .400 from three-point range and have hit their share of game winners. Virginia tied for first in the ACC and The Vols finished second in the SEC East to Florida. I give Tennessee a slight edge inside, even though they are a little undersized, because of the emergence of SEC All-Freshman Team center Wayne Chism.
Regional:
Texas A&M (3) v. Memphis (2)
Aggie guard Acie Law IV is probably my favorite player in the country. If I could pick one guy in the country to take a game winning shot, it would be Law, and I wouldn’t think about it for more than a second. Memphis hasn’t played a lot of good teams this year, but they do win games by an average of almost 17 points, and they play a stifling, harassing style of defense. The tigers have virtually no inside presence other than 6-9 Jr. forward Joey Dorsey (9.6 rpg). He and Sr. guard Jeremy Hunt lead a team of freshmen and sophomores. Senior center Antanas Kavaliauskus can step outside for the Aggies and draw attention away from the basket. I like A&M all the way to the Final Four, so I’ll take them over Memphis.
East Region:
Second Round
Boston College (7) v. Georgetown (2)
BC is a bit of an enigma to me. They have the best player in the ACC in Jared Dudley, and an explosive guard in Tyrese Rice, but they seem to give up at times against good teams. The reason I list this as a game that intrigues me is because I’m interested to see how well BC’s tournament tested seniors can lead them through one last post season. Running into Georgetown will be the ultimate test. Roy Hibbert is as dominant a center as there is in college basketball right now, and forward Jeff Green has been one of the better forwards in the country this year. (Green-Dudley would be one of the better front court match-ups of the tourney.) If Rice can push the tempo for the Eagles and prevent Georgetown from setting up their offense and dragging down the pace of the game, they could have a shot to upset the Hoyas. I’m not sure that’s going to happen though; I like the Georgetown to advance.
Second Round
Oral Roberts (14) v. Vanderbilt (8)
There is always a low seed that makes it to the sweet 16, this year, I think it’s Oral Roberts. Vanderbilt has shown that they have only one thing in mind when they take the floor – shoot it deep, and shoot it often. (Okay, that’s two things, but you get my point). If Vandy gets hot, they can beat good teams, as evidenced by wins against Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida. But if they don’t, they can also lose to bad teams (like Furman and Appalachian State.) Oral Roberts made a lot of noise earlier in the year by beating Kansas, and later Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles are led by Sr. forward Caleb Green, (the three time conference POY) and Sr. guard Ken “King” Tutt. These teams are similar in that they both play about nine guys regularly and are heavy laden with seniors and juniors. Only OR's shooting guard Marchello Vealy (a soph. who dropped seven three’s on the Jayhawks) is a younger starter. Green and shot blocking center Shawn King give Oral Roberts an inside presence that Vandy can’t match. If the three’s aren’t falling fast and furious for Vanderbilt, make the Golden Eagles this year’s Cinderella. The only thing crazier than this - Oral Roberts actualy matches up well with Georgetown if they meet in the Sweet 16.
Regional:
Texas (4) v. North Carolina (1)
Kevin Durant is hands down the best player in the country. I fought this for most of the season, ‘cause I don’t like freshmen, but it’s true. The longhorns only have two losses this season where their opponent scored fewer than 87 points, so they can definitely put the ball in the basket. This game will set the tournament record for most starting freshmen and sophomores (only Sr. forward Reyshawn Terry of North Carolina avoids that distinction), but don’t expect that to affect the level of play. The Tar Heels may be the only team in the country deep enough to continually run guys at Durant for 40 minutes. That will be important because the only way to beat Texas is to make Durant take a ton of shots at a low percentage. Even then, you’ve got to worry about guards D.J. Augustin (best freshman guard in the country) and A.J. Abrams knocking down shots from the perimeter. As deep as the Heels are, they will need center Tyler Hansbrough to be aggressive inside and play the role that Jokim Noah did last year for Florida if they want to advance to the Final Four. I’m picking the Tar Heels here for two reasons, one, I think that Reyshawn Terry will be the toughest defender that Durant has seen all year. And two, the Heels can score 90 on Texas, and that will be enough to beat them.
Midwest Region:
Second Round
Notre Dame (6) v. Oregon (3)
Oregon is a little over rated and Notre Dame is a little under rated, so this should be a fairly even match up. The center of attraction here is Duck’s guard Aaron Brooks. Brooks should have been the PAC-10 player of the year (UCLA’s Aaron Afflalo won it) and he is a real showman when it comes to theatrics on the basketball court. He and fellow backcourt mate Tajuan Porter can get hot from three point range and put teams under quickly. That being said, Oregon relies to heavily on Brooks to win games. Notre Dame is led by a pair of senior guards, Collin Falls and Russell Carter, who can match Oregon’s prowess at shooting from distance. Freshman forward Luke Harangody has become a vital inside presence for the Irish over the second half of the season. This will be a great match up of senior guards in Brooks and Falls. If Notre Dame can control the post (I think they will) it will open things up for their shooters. Go Irish.
Regional
Butler (5) v. Florida (1)
Florida reminds me too much of Connecticut last year. They are immensely talented, a little lazy mentally, and like to wait around until the second half before turning it on. That usually leads to upsets in the tournament. Butler certainly has the resume of a giant killer. They began the year with winning 12 of their first 13 games, including at Notre Dame, Indiana, at Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Purdue. With their age and tournament experience, the Gators certainly won’t awe them, and they’ll believe they can win. Florida guard Tuarean Green will need to keep up the tempo against the Bulldogs, and the rest of the Gators will have to keep up. As experienced as Florida is, they only go about seven deep, with all five starters averaging more than 25 min per game. If they get tired from pushing the tempo, or get into foul trouble, look out. I like Butler in the biggest bracket buster upset of the tourney. Well, maybe the second biggest…
West Region:
Second Round
Gonzaga (10) v. UCLA (2)
What do we know about the tournament? It’s about guard play, coaching, and style. UCLA has good guards. Afflalo (16.7 ppg) is the PAC-10 POY, and Darren Collison (12.6 ppg) was voted first team All-Conference. Ben Howland is one of the best defensive coaches in the country (UCLA allows only 60.6 points per game), mainly because of the swarming defense of their great backcourt. But offensively, the Bruins have a negative turnover margin (-0.8) and have an assist to turn over ratio of only 1.21:1. Most of Afflalo’s points come off of turnovers and fast breaks. The Bruins can be beaten if their guards are forced to produce in the half court and consistently make jump shots.
Gonzaga’s guards Derek Raivio (18.2 ppg) and Jeremy Pargo (12.2 ppg), probably my second favorite player in the country, score more, and are deeper. Soph. guard Micha Downs missed the first half of the season for the Bulldogs, but came on to be a big factor for the Zag’s in the second half. They have only four losses since Downs’ return to the lineup. Mark Few is making his ninth consecutive trip to the tournament this year after having dealt with the loss of their best player in mid season. They have a turnover margin of +1.0, and score over 70 ppg. The Zag’s also have a committee of post players in Sean Mallon, David Pendergraft and Abdullahi Kusso who combine for 20 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. UCLA’s Josh Shipp and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute counter with a strong inside presence for the Bruins. The big contrast here is style of play. UCLA likes to grind you down and get after it defensively, whereas Gonzaga is more up-tempo. The team that hits from the outside and can control the pace of the game will have the big advantage. My pick? Gonzaga. It’s been too long since they’ve surprised anyone in the tourney.
Regional
Pitt (3) v. UCLA (2)
I know I just picked UCLA to lose before this mach-up, but it’s the only interesting potential regional game in the West (my apologies to Southern Illinois). This was the one that made everyone’s eyebrows rise the second the brackets were announced. The idea of Ben Howland facing his former team coached by his protégé Jamie Dixon is what tournament games are all about. These two play identical styles (of course) and dominate their own ends of the country. Seven foot Sr. center Aaron Gray has led Pitt all season. He is a dominant force inside, especially in slow paced, drag out games like this one would be. In this game the Bruins would be dependant on their guards, and against Pitt they would have a decided advantage. Panther’s guards Levance Fields and Antonio Graves are good, but undersized. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one finished with a final score in the 60’s. If these teams do meet, I would take UCLA. Dixon has done a great job at Pitt, but he’s not Ben Howland quite yet.
Monday, November 06, 2006
I have a dream
The first ever NCAA College Football Tournament is finally about to begin! After decades of greed-induced confusion in relation to crowning a collegiate gridiron champion, the title will be decided on the field for the first time in history. Here's a rundown of the 16 teams (11 conference champions and five at large teams) seeded by the polls in the tournament and when they play, along with projections on who will advance throughout the tourney:
Round One:
Friday, Dec 8
The Motor City Bowl, Detroit Mich.
#1 Michigan 12-0 (BIG 10) vs. #16 Middle Tennessee St. 8-4 (Sun Belt)
The Capital One Bowl, Orlando Fl.
#8 Auburn 11-2 (at large) vs. #9 Georgia Tech 11-2 (ACC)
The AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Tex.
#5 Texas 12-1 (Big 12) vs. #12 Wake Forest 10-3 (at large)
Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Fl.
#4 Florida 12-1 (SEC) vs. #13 BYU 10-2 (MWC)
Saturday, Dec 9
The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, San Diego Cal.
#6 Cal 11-1 (PAC 10) vs. #11 Boise St. 12-0 (WAC)
The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Tex.
#3 Louisville 12-0 (Big East) vs. #14 Houston 10-3 (Con. USA)
The Insight Bowl, Tempe, Ariz.
#7 Notre Dame 11-1 (at large) vs. #10 Rutgers 11-1 (at large)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn
#2 Ohio St 11-1 (at large) vs. # 15 Ohio 10-3 (MAC)
The five at large teams come from one independent (the Irish) and four of the six power conferences, with the PAC 10 and Big 12 receiving only one bid each (USC was left out after losses to Cal and Notre Dame in November, opening the door for Wake Forest, who lost a heart breaker to the Ramblin' Wreck in the ACC title game). There was of course, some controversy as there always is in college football with many believing that a two loss West Virginia team should have been invited, or Wisconsin, who quietly had a fine season. Tennessee and Nebraska (who gave away a game to Texas earlier in the year) felt that they had a gripe as well. They will have to prove that they belong with their performance in one of the many non-tournament bowl games this holiday season.
The first round will be a great opportunity for some of these smaller conference winners to show their stuff on a national stage. Middle Tennessee State, in only their fifth year of D-1 football, will have their work cut out for them against the Wolverinees. And Louisville had better be ready for Houston QB Kevin Kolb, the best player you never heard of until the post season. (And probably never would have heard of if not for this tournament.) BYU's John Beck is the fourth highest rated passer in the nation. Will he be able to lead the Cougars to an upset of #4 Florida? Boise State will finally get what they've been asking for since 2002: a chance to show they're one of the best teams in the land. This just may be the best weekend of college football in history. Let's get rolling!
Round Two, NCAA Quarter Finals:
Friday, Dec 15
Chick-Fill-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta, Ga
#1 Michigan 13-0 (BIG 10) vs. #9 Georgia Tech 12-2 (ACC)
The Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fl
#4 Florida 13-1 (SEC) vs. #5 Texas 13-1 (Big 12)
Saturday, Dec 16
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.
#3 Louisville 13-0 (Big East) vs. vs. #11 Boise St. 13-0 (WAC)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi, Pasadena, Cal.
#2 Ohio St 12-1 (at large) vs. #7 Notre Dame 12-1 (at large)
Round two features a rematch of last year's Fiesta Bowl with Ohio St. and Notre Dame, playing this year in Pasadena, among three meetings of top ten seeds. Boise may have had the perfect draw to pull off a real Cinderella story in this tournament
Round Three, NCAA Semi Finals:
Saturday, Dec. 23
The FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami, Fl.
#1 Michigan 14-0 (BIG 10) vs. #4 Florida 14-1 (SEC)
The Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans La.
#2 Ohio St 13-1 (at large) vs. #3 Louisville 14-0 (Big East)
The polls seem to have done their jobs, with the top four seeds all making it to the semi final.
Round Four, NCAA Championship:
Monday, Jan 1
NCAA Championship Game, Glendale Ariz.
#2 Ohio St 14-1 (at large) vs. #4 Florida 15-1 (SEC)
That's one hell of a month of college football!
There is one problem with this scenario: The fact that many teams play more than one game at distant locations. As played out above, Ohio St. fans would have to go to Memphis, Glendale, New Orleans, and then back to Glendale for the title game. That's a lot of travel. Florida on the other hand never left the state of Florida until the final round. Would Buckeye fans not make the effort to follow their team for a month? Maybe not. Would people living in and around the bowl locations buy tickets to see them in a playoff game? Buy tickets to a playoff game regardless of who was playing? I think so. This could also be corrected by having first round bowl locations set up in each region to accomodate potential participants. The idea that this would provide an added academic strain on players doesn't fly here either. Players on bowl teams are practicing every day in December anyway. Let them spend the weekend proving they're the best. Every round doesn't need to be traeted like a current bowl game, where teams leave a week early and spend days engaging in pomp and circumstance before kick off. It would be more of an extension of the regular season. This would actually provide more time for most athletes to devote to academics, as fewer teams would be active every week.
I didn't plan the travel required or the game locations. I tried to put all of the high seeds as close to home as would be reasonable in the first round, (which can be difficult, as there are few good bowl opportunities in the mid west, where Michigan, Ohio St. and Notre Dame are located) but after that it was all up to chance. Some later round game locations actually favored the lower seeded teams (Michigan playing Georgia Tech in Atlanta in round two for instance). I'm not sure that should be a factor in deciding who should play in which game though.
The title game could easily continue to rotate between the four current BSC bowl locations, with the final game also rotated among the four current locations on New Year's Day. The one sad part about that is that it would take away the excitement of all of the great New Year's Day bowl games, but let's face it, The BCS ruined that about five years ago. All of the Bowls are meaningless as it now stands, and that would be a small price to pay for this awesome tournament that includes the major bowls and provides a true National Champion.
The NCAA forces it's basketball teams to play in their own sanctioned post-season tournament. It's time for the NCAA to flex some football muscle with the conference commissioners who are afraid to take on the smaller schools and would rather sit in their money grubbing boys club in bed with the BSC. Give everyone a chance at the title. There is a misconception that big conference teams want to make as much money as possible. That isn't entirely true. A football tournament like this one would bring in twice as much money as the NCAA gets now out of the bowl system. The BSC conference teams and coaches only want to make as much money as they can while keeping the non-BCS teams relatively poor. They get enough trouble as it is when every couple of years a Utah, Tulane, Colorado State, Fresno State, Air Force, Marshal, BYU, or TCU has a good enough team to get ranked in the top ten. (They got so sick of Louisville that they eventually included them into the club.) What would happen if those smaller schools could actually tell their recruits that if they come to their school, they could win a National Title? Pretty soon the smaller schools will get a little bit more of the pie, and the big boys won't be quite as big any more. I'm sure any SEC athletic director will tell you, life is hard enough when you're winning in big time college football. Most don't have the guts to do it on a level playing field.
Round One:
Friday, Dec 8
The Motor City Bowl, Detroit Mich.
#1 Michigan 12-0 (BIG 10) vs. #16 Middle Tennessee St. 8-4 (Sun Belt)
The Capital One Bowl, Orlando Fl.
#8 Auburn 11-2 (at large) vs. #9 Georgia Tech 11-2 (ACC)
The AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Tex.
#5 Texas 12-1 (Big 12) vs. #12 Wake Forest 10-3 (at large)
Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Fl.
#4 Florida 12-1 (SEC) vs. #13 BYU 10-2 (MWC)
Saturday, Dec 9
The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, San Diego Cal.
#6 Cal 11-1 (PAC 10) vs. #11 Boise St. 12-0 (WAC)
The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Tex.
#3 Louisville 12-0 (Big East) vs. #14 Houston 10-3 (Con. USA)
The Insight Bowl, Tempe, Ariz.
#7 Notre Dame 11-1 (at large) vs. #10 Rutgers 11-1 (at large)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn
#2 Ohio St 11-1 (at large) vs. # 15 Ohio 10-3 (MAC)
The five at large teams come from one independent (the Irish) and four of the six power conferences, with the PAC 10 and Big 12 receiving only one bid each (USC was left out after losses to Cal and Notre Dame in November, opening the door for Wake Forest, who lost a heart breaker to the Ramblin' Wreck in the ACC title game). There was of course, some controversy as there always is in college football with many believing that a two loss West Virginia team should have been invited, or Wisconsin, who quietly had a fine season. Tennessee and Nebraska (who gave away a game to Texas earlier in the year) felt that they had a gripe as well. They will have to prove that they belong with their performance in one of the many non-tournament bowl games this holiday season.
The first round will be a great opportunity for some of these smaller conference winners to show their stuff on a national stage. Middle Tennessee State, in only their fifth year of D-1 football, will have their work cut out for them against the Wolverinees. And Louisville had better be ready for Houston QB Kevin Kolb, the best player you never heard of until the post season. (And probably never would have heard of if not for this tournament.) BYU's John Beck is the fourth highest rated passer in the nation. Will he be able to lead the Cougars to an upset of #4 Florida? Boise State will finally get what they've been asking for since 2002: a chance to show they're one of the best teams in the land. This just may be the best weekend of college football in history. Let's get rolling!
Round Two, NCAA Quarter Finals:
Friday, Dec 15
Chick-Fill-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta, Ga
#1 Michigan 13-0 (BIG 10) vs. #9 Georgia Tech 12-2 (ACC)
The Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fl
#4 Florida 13-1 (SEC) vs. #5 Texas 13-1 (Big 12)
Saturday, Dec 16
The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz.
#3 Louisville 13-0 (Big East) vs. vs. #11 Boise St. 13-0 (WAC)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi, Pasadena, Cal.
#2 Ohio St 12-1 (at large) vs. #7 Notre Dame 12-1 (at large)
Round two features a rematch of last year's Fiesta Bowl with Ohio St. and Notre Dame, playing this year in Pasadena, among three meetings of top ten seeds. Boise may have had the perfect draw to pull off a real Cinderella story in this tournament
Round Three, NCAA Semi Finals:
Saturday, Dec. 23
The FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami, Fl.
#1 Michigan 14-0 (BIG 10) vs. #4 Florida 14-1 (SEC)
The Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans La.
#2 Ohio St 13-1 (at large) vs. #3 Louisville 14-0 (Big East)
The polls seem to have done their jobs, with the top four seeds all making it to the semi final.
Round Four, NCAA Championship:
Monday, Jan 1
NCAA Championship Game, Glendale Ariz.
#2 Ohio St 14-1 (at large) vs. #4 Florida 15-1 (SEC)
That's one hell of a month of college football!
There is one problem with this scenario: The fact that many teams play more than one game at distant locations. As played out above, Ohio St. fans would have to go to Memphis, Glendale, New Orleans, and then back to Glendale for the title game. That's a lot of travel. Florida on the other hand never left the state of Florida until the final round. Would Buckeye fans not make the effort to follow their team for a month? Maybe not. Would people living in and around the bowl locations buy tickets to see them in a playoff game? Buy tickets to a playoff game regardless of who was playing? I think so. This could also be corrected by having first round bowl locations set up in each region to accomodate potential participants. The idea that this would provide an added academic strain on players doesn't fly here either. Players on bowl teams are practicing every day in December anyway. Let them spend the weekend proving they're the best. Every round doesn't need to be traeted like a current bowl game, where teams leave a week early and spend days engaging in pomp and circumstance before kick off. It would be more of an extension of the regular season. This would actually provide more time for most athletes to devote to academics, as fewer teams would be active every week.
I didn't plan the travel required or the game locations. I tried to put all of the high seeds as close to home as would be reasonable in the first round, (which can be difficult, as there are few good bowl opportunities in the mid west, where Michigan, Ohio St. and Notre Dame are located) but after that it was all up to chance. Some later round game locations actually favored the lower seeded teams (Michigan playing Georgia Tech in Atlanta in round two for instance). I'm not sure that should be a factor in deciding who should play in which game though.
The title game could easily continue to rotate between the four current BSC bowl locations, with the final game also rotated among the four current locations on New Year's Day. The one sad part about that is that it would take away the excitement of all of the great New Year's Day bowl games, but let's face it, The BCS ruined that about five years ago. All of the Bowls are meaningless as it now stands, and that would be a small price to pay for this awesome tournament that includes the major bowls and provides a true National Champion.
The NCAA forces it's basketball teams to play in their own sanctioned post-season tournament. It's time for the NCAA to flex some football muscle with the conference commissioners who are afraid to take on the smaller schools and would rather sit in their money grubbing boys club in bed with the BSC. Give everyone a chance at the title. There is a misconception that big conference teams want to make as much money as possible. That isn't entirely true. A football tournament like this one would bring in twice as much money as the NCAA gets now out of the bowl system. The BSC conference teams and coaches only want to make as much money as they can while keeping the non-BCS teams relatively poor. They get enough trouble as it is when every couple of years a Utah, Tulane, Colorado State, Fresno State, Air Force, Marshal, BYU, or TCU has a good enough team to get ranked in the top ten. (They got so sick of Louisville that they eventually included them into the club.) What would happen if those smaller schools could actually tell their recruits that if they come to their school, they could win a National Title? Pretty soon the smaller schools will get a little bit more of the pie, and the big boys won't be quite as big any more. I'm sure any SEC athletic director will tell you, life is hard enough when you're winning in big time college football. Most don't have the guts to do it on a level playing field.
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